Calculator
Example Scenarios
| Scenario | Stage | Value | Fit | Relationship | Access | Competition | Risk | Likely Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warm referral, strong fit | Negotiation | 50,000 | 90% | 8/10 | 7/10 | 4/10 | 3/10 | High probability with clear next steps |
| New lead, early stage | Prospecting | 15,000 | 55% | 3/10 | 2/10 | 7/10 | 6/10 | Low probability; build access and clarity |
| Good fit, procurement heavy | Proposal | 120,000 | 80% | 6/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 5/10 | Moderate; reduce friction and de-risk delivery |
Formula Used
Each input is normalized to a 0–1 scale. For risk-style inputs (competition, friction, risk), the score is inverted so higher values reduce readiness.
The logistic curve maps readiness to probability, keeping results realistic.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter your current deal signals using the sliders and dropdowns.
- Set deal value and complexity to reflect scrutiny and risk.
- Enable the confidence simulation if inputs are uncertain.
- Optionally adjust weights to match your sales environment.
- Click calculate, review drivers, and apply the action plan.
Use the export buttons to share results with your team or mentor.
Why Win Probability Matters
Winning a contract is rarely about one factor. This calculator turns scattered deal signals into a forecast, helping you prioritize bids, allocate time, and justify next steps to stakeholders. By scoring relationship, fit, access, proposal quality, and delivery readiness, you replace gut feel with a structured view. When the probability is low, you can decide to disqualify early or invest only in targeted improvements. That discipline protects reputation and improves win rate.
Key Inputs This Tool Measures
The tool captures both strengths and friction. Positive drivers include solution fit, decision-maker access, proposal quality, delivery capability, past performance, and timeline alignment. Negative drivers measure competition intensity, procurement friction, and delivery risk, which are inverted so higher concern reduces readiness. Pipeline stage adds context, reflecting that qualified opportunities tend to convert more often than early outreach. Contract value and complexity can apply optional penalties when scrutiny increases for large deals.
Interpreting Probability and Confidence Range
Your output includes a single probability and, if enabled, a confidence range from simulation. The range estimates how sensitive results are to uncertainty in your inputs, shown as P10, median, and P90 values. A tight range suggests stable signals, while a wide range indicates missing information or volatile stakeholders. Use the driver list to see which factors lift the score above neutral and which drag it down. Track changes after each meeting.
Using Weights and Sensitivities
Default weights reflect a balanced selling motion, but industries differ. Enable custom weights to emphasize what matters most, such as compliance for public sector bids or proof of delivery for complex implementations. Weights are normalized automatically, so you can enter simple percentages. Sensitivity sliders control how strongly deal size and complexity reduce the adjusted score. If you sell high-ticket contracts, increase size sensitivity to mirror longer cycles and tougher scrutiny overall.
Turning Results into Career Actions
For career planning, treat the result as a decision aid. High-probability deals are chances to demonstrate ownership, build references, and negotiate scope confidently. Moderate deals call for a focused plan: strengthen access, tighten the proposal, and remove procurement blockers. Low deals highlight skill gaps you can address through training, mentorship, or partnerships. Export CSV or PDF to review patterns across opportunities, then set weekly targets for improving your weakest drivers consistently.
FAQs
1) Is this probability a guarantee of winning?
No. It estimates likelihood from your inputs. Use it alongside stakeholder feedback, competitive intel, and contract requirements to make better decisions.
2) What inputs influence the result the most?
Solution fit, relationship strength, and decision-maker access usually have the highest weight. Custom weights let you align influence with your market reality.
3) Why do competition, procurement, and risk reduce the score?
Those fields represent friction. Higher values mean more obstacles, so the tool inverts them to reflect reduced readiness and lower win probability.
4) When should I enable the confidence simulation?
Enable it when inputs are uncertain or stakeholders are unclear. The P10–P90 range shows how outcomes shift if your assumptions are slightly wrong.
5) How should I use deal size and complexity sensitivities?
Increase sensitivities for large, heavily governed deals. Lower them for smaller, repeatable work where cycles are short and requirements are stable.
6) How can this support career planning?
Track probabilities across opportunities to spot strengths and gaps. Use action plans to build skills, improve stakeholder access, and choose projects that grow your profile.