| RFP ID | Date | Client | Sector | Value | Status | Fit | Competitors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFP-2401 | 2025-08-14 | Northbridge Health | Healthcare | $52,000 | Win | 82 | 3 |
| RFP-2402 | 2025-09-02 | BrightCity Transit | Public | $38,000 | Loss | 64 | 6 |
| RFP-2403 | 2025-10-10 | Helio Manufacturing | Industrial | $45,000 | Pending | 72 | 4 |
| RFP-2404 | 2025-11-05 | Lakeview University | Education | $61,000 | No decision | 77 | 5 |
| RFP-2405 | 2025-12-01 | Orchard Retail Group | Retail | $29,000 | Loss | 58 | 7 |
| RFP-2406 | 2026-01-18 | Summit Energy | Energy | $74,000 | Win | 88 | 2 |
- Overall win rate = Wins ÷ Total submitted
- Decided win rate = Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses)
- Pending = Total submitted − Wins − Losses − No decision
- Proposal cost per RFP = (Hours per RFP × Hourly rate) + Fixed cost per RFP
- Total bid cost = Total submitted × Proposal cost per RFP
- Estimated profit won = Wins × (Average contract value × Gross margin %)
- Net after bid costs = Estimated profit won − Total bid cost
- ROI = Net after bid costs ÷ Total bid cost
- Expected value per RFP = (Overall win rate × Profit per win) − Proposal cost per RFP
- Break-even win rate = Proposal cost per RFP ÷ Profit per win
- Projected win rate = Base overall win rate × quality multipliers (fit, relationship, competition, compliance, pricing), clamped to 0–100%
- Pick a date range and enter total submitted, wins, losses, and no-decision counts.
- Add realistic contract value and margin, then estimate proposal effort and fixed costs.
- Adjust fit, relationship, competitors, compliance, and pricing to model new opportunities.
- Press Submit to see rates, costs, ROI, and break-even above the form.
- Use Download CSV or Download PDF to share results with stakeholders.
Outcome context
Win rate is easy to quote, but it hides the story behind outcomes. Track overall win rate alongside decided win rate, because pending and no-decision work distort comparisons. For example, 5 wins from 18 submissions is 27.8%, yet 5 wins from 14 decided bids is 35.7%. Add a 95% confidence band to avoid overreacting to samples. Use at least 12–20 bids before setting targets for each segment.
Bid costing
Proposal work has an opportunity cost, so calculate cost per RFP. If a bid takes 14 hours at a blended 35 rate plus 65 fixed, cost per submission is 555. Multiply by submissions to estimate total bid spend and compare against total profit won. Capacity also matters: 6 submissions per month across six months implies 36 slots. If you submit 18, utilization is 50%, leaving room to pursue higher-fit opportunities.
Value thresholds
Break-even win rate converts bid effort into a decision rule. Compute profit per win as average contract value times gross margin. With 45,000 value and 35% margin, profit per win is 15,750. Divide proposal cost, 555, by 15,750 to get a 3.5% break-even rate. Expected value per RFP becomes (win rate × profit per win) minus proposal cost, helping you rank bids. Use it to set thresholds.
Quality levers
Projection is useful when it reflects controllable levers. Use fit score, relationship strength, competitor count, compliance readiness, and pricing confidence to adjust a base win rate. A strong relationship (5) and fit near 85 can lift projected odds, while eight competitors should reduce them. Keep scores honest by tying them to evidence: discovery calls, mandatory requirements met, and pricing narrative clarity. Revisit multipliers monthly and record what happened after award.
Review cadence
Treat the dashboard as an operating review, not a retrospective. Track trends in no-decision rate; a rise above 15% often signals poor qualification or unclear procurement cycles. Monitor cost per win and aim to reduce it by improving templates, reuse, and stakeholder alignment. Use the CSV export for leadership updates and the PDF for bid reviews. Set an improvement goal, such as +3 percentage points decided win rate each quarter.
FAQs
Should I use overall or decided win rate?
Use both. Overall includes every submission, so it reflects real throughput. Decided focuses on wins versus losses, which is better for learning. If pending or no-decision is high, decided rate is usually clearer.
How do I estimate proposal cost accurately?
Start with time tracking for two to four bids, then use a blended hourly rate that includes overhead. Add fixed items such as design, compliance subscriptions, travel, and partner fees. Update the estimate quarterly.
What does break-even win rate tell me?
It shows the minimum win percentage needed to cover proposal effort from expected profit per win. If your historical win rate is below break-even, tighten qualification or reduce bid cost.
Why include no-decision outcomes?
No-decision bids consume time but produce zero revenue. Tracking them highlights weak qualification, unstable buyers, or unclear procurement calendars. Reducing this rate improves efficiency even if win rate stays flat.
How should I score fit and pricing?
Define a simple rubric. Fit can reflect scope match, delivery capability, and urgency. Pricing can reflect discount flexibility, differentiators, and value narrative strength. Keep scores tied to evidence, not optimism.
Can I use this for future pipeline forecasting?
Yes, but treat projections as directional. Combine projected win rate with expected contract value and capacity per month to estimate likely wins. Review actual results monthly and recalibrate your scoring multipliers.