Calculator Input
Example Data Table
This sample shows a monthly demand series you can test inside the calculator.
| Month | Demand Value |
|---|---|
| Jan | 120 |
| Feb | 126 |
| Mar | 132 |
| Apr | 129 |
| May | 138 |
| Jun | 145 |
| Jul | 149 |
| Aug | 153 |
| Sep | 158 |
| Oct | 162 |
| Nov | 168 |
| Dec | 171 |
Formula Used
Triple Exponential Average, commonly called TEMA, reduces lag by combining three exponential moving averages. It responds faster than a single EMA while still smoothing irregular movement in a time series.
The calculator first smooths the original values, then smooths the first EMA, then smooths the second EMA. Finally, it combines those layers to create a faster and cleaner trend estimate.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter your numeric time-series values in the series field.
- Add labels if you want named points such as months or weeks.
- Choose a smoothing period. Smaller values react faster.
- Leave alpha blank to use the standard formula.
- Select a seed method to control how early EMA values begin.
- Set forecast steps if you want a simple forward extension.
- Press the calculate button to show results above the form.
- Review the cards, graph, and detailed row-by-row table.
- Use CSV or PDF export to save the output.
Frequently Asked Questions
1) What does the triple exponential average show?
It shows a smoothed trend line built from three EMA layers. The goal is lower lag than a basic moving average while keeping noisy data easier to read.
2) Is TEMA the same as Holt-Winters forecasting?
No. TEMA is mainly a smoothing and signal tool. Holt-Winters models level, trend, and seasonality for structured forecasting tasks.
3) What period should I choose?
Short periods react faster but can wobble more. Longer periods smooth harder and reduce noise, but they respond more slowly to turning points.
4) Why do some early rows show blanks?
Layered smoothing needs seed values before all three EMA levels become available. Those blanks mark the warm-up area of the calculation.
5) What does “Series above TEMA” mean?
It means the latest observed value is currently above the smoothed trend estimate. Many analysts read that as short-term strength relative to the underlying trend.
6) Should I enter a custom alpha?
Only when you want manual control over smoothing sensitivity. Leaving it blank uses the standard alpha tied to the chosen period.
7) Is the forecast an exact prediction?
No. The forecast extends the recent TEMA slope for quick planning. It is useful for directional guidance, not guaranteed future values.
8) What do CSV and PDF exports include?
They include the calculated summary and the row-by-row table. This makes it easier to document, review, and share your smoothing analysis.