Calculator inputs
Example data table
This sample shows how a holiday trading plan might be structured before running the calculator.
| Campaign Window | Daily Sessions | Base CVR | AOV | Traffic Lift | Promo Discount | Stock Availability | Forecast Net Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Friday Weekend | 24,500 | 3.10% | $84.00 | 92% | 18% | 96% | $148,722.00 |
| Cyber Monday | 31,000 | 3.45% | $79.00 | 118% | 15% | 93% | $172,994.00 |
| Last Shipping Week | 19,600 | 2.85% | $88.00 | 46% | 10% | 91% | $97,406.00 |
Formula used
Forecast Sessions = Average Daily Sessions × Forecast Days × (1 + Traffic Uplift)
Potential Orders = Forecast Sessions × Base Conversion Rate × (1 + Conversion Uplift)
Serviceable Orders = Potential Orders × Stock Availability
Forecast Orders = Lesser of Serviceable Orders and Inventory Units Available
Forecast AOV = Base AOV × (1 + AOV Uplift) × (1 − Promotional Discount)
Gross Revenue = Forecast Orders × Forecast AOV
Net Revenue = Gross Revenue × (1 − Return Rate)
Contribution Profit = Net Revenue − COGS − Payment Fees − Fulfillment Cost − Ad Spend
Risk Adjusted Revenue = Net Revenue × Forecast Confidence
Risk Adjusted Profit = Contribution Profit × Forecast Confidence
How to use this calculator
- Enter the number of selling days in your holiday campaign window.
- Provide current average daily sessions, conversion rate, and order value.
- Add expected lifts for traffic, conversion, and basket value.
- Enter the planned discount, expected return rate, and available stock level.
- Set inventory capacity, cost of goods, payment fees, fulfillment cost, and ad spend.
- Choose a forecast confidence percentage for a conservative planning view.
- Submit the form to see sessions, orders, revenue, profit, stock loss, and efficiency metrics.
- Use the CSV or PDF buttons to export the result summary for reporting.
FAQs
1. What does this holiday sales forecast calculator estimate?
It estimates sessions, fulfilled orders, gross revenue, net revenue after returns, contribution profit, ROAS, CAC, stock-limited demand loss, and risk-adjusted outcomes for holiday campaigns.
2. Why does the calculator use stock availability and inventory units?
Stock availability models service level across active listings, while inventory units cap the maximum orders you can fulfill. Together they show whether demand may exceed operational capacity.
3. How is promotional discount applied?
The discount reduces the forecast average order value after any AOV uplift. This helps model aggressive holiday offers that lift conversion but compress selling price.
4. Does the calculator account for returns?
Yes. It estimates returns as a percentage of gross revenue and subtracts that value to produce net revenue. This is useful for apparel, gifting, and high-return seasonal categories.
5. What is contribution profit here?
Contribution profit is net revenue minus cost of goods, payment fees, fulfillment costs, and advertising spend. It helps compare campaign upside before fixed overhead and taxes.
6. What does forecast confidence mean?
Forecast confidence creates a conservative scenario by scaling forecast orders, revenue, and profit. Lower values help planners stress-test uncertain seasonal assumptions before committing budgets.
7. Can this calculator support scenario planning?
Yes. Run multiple cases with different discounts, traffic lifts, conversion changes, or inventory limits. Compare exported results to choose safer or more aggressive holiday strategies.
8. When should I use baseline versus forecast results?
Use baseline values to represent regular trading conditions. Use forecast values to assess seasonal campaigns. The gap between them shows incremental orders and revenue from your holiday plan.