Turn practice results into a clear pass outlook. Adjust effort, time, difficulty to test plans. See probability, confidence range, and next best actions today.
| Study (h/wk) | Completion (%) | Avg mock (%) | Std dev | Days to exam | Difficulty | Pass mark | Estimated probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 60 | 62 | 12 | 30 | 7 | 70 | 77.6% (High) |
| 12 | 80 | 72 | 8 | 21 | 6 | 70 | 91.2% (Very High) |
| 18 | 92 | 83 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 70 | 96.3% (Very High) |
Use the example button in the form to load a similar scenario quickly.
The calculator converts inputs into normalized readiness signals (0–1) and combines them with weighted effects. The combined score z is mapped to a probability using a logistic function:
Probability = 1 / (1 + e-z)
The score z increases with higher mock scores, being above the pass mark, higher completion, better retention, consistent performance, and steady study time. It decreases with higher perceived difficulty, anxiety, multiple prior attempts, and very long exam duration.
The confidence range is a heuristic band that widens when mock variability is high or when the exam is far away.
Tip: Keep mock averages 5–10 points above the pass mark with low variability.
This calculator combines preparation volume, coverage, practice performance, and personal factors to estimate pass probability. Study hours, weeks prepared, and question volume reflect effort. Syllabus completion and retention capture breadth and recall. Average mock score and the pass mark define your performance baseline, while difficulty and anxiety adjust execution risk under pressure. For many certifications, candidates who complete 80% coverage, score 75%+ on mocks, and review mistakes weekly tend to reach high likelihood bands.
The most important driver is the gap between your mock average and the pass mark. A negative gap suggests you need targeted remediation; even a 5–10 point buffer typically improves stability. If your pass mark is 70% and your mock average is 72%, the model rewards the small buffer but still flags limited margin for error. Aim to raise the gap before tapering.
Score variability matters because consistent performance is more predictive than occasional peaks. The calculator treats standard deviation as a consistency signal: lower values increase probability and narrow the confidence range. As a practical rule, a standard deviation under 8 points indicates stable execution, while values above 12 often mean topic gaps or time management issues during timed sets.
Time remaining and weekly study intensity influence how much improvement is realistic. More days to the exam slightly increase probability because there is room to close gaps, yet the confidence band widens because plans may change. If you have fewer than 14 days, prioritize mixed timed mocks and rapid review. With 30+ days, cycle through weak domains, then consolidate.
Use the probability and readiness score together. High probability with low readiness often signals overconfidence from limited data, while moderate probability with high readiness can reflect conservative settings such as high difficulty or anxiety. Compare scenarios by changing one input at a time, then choose actions that move mock average upward and variability downward for the largest gains. If probability is under 55%, prioritize error logs and spaced repetition. A two-point mock average gain plus lower deviation can materially shift bands quickly.
It is a heuristic forecast based on your inputs, not an official scoring model. Use it to compare study scenarios, highlight weak signals, and guide planning, not to guarantee a pass outcome.
A buffer of 5–10 points above the pass mark usually provides safer odds. If your average sits at the threshold, prioritize weak domains and timed mixed sets until the margin is consistent.
Use the standard deviation from your last 5–10 mocks. If you do not have it, approximate by subtracting your lowest mock from your highest and dividing by four as a rough guide.
Higher anxiety and perceived difficulty can lower execution quality under time pressure. The calculator applies a modest penalty so the forecast reflects pacing risk, second guessing, and fatigue effects.
Short timelines favor consolidation: mixed timed mocks, error logs, and rapid review. Longer timelines allow deep remediation and spaced repetition. Adjust the input to see how different plans shift probability.
Raise your mock average and reduce variability. Focus on error patterns, drill weak objectives, and practice full-length timed sets. Improving retention with spaced repetition often boosts performance within two weeks.
Important Note: All the Calculators listed in this site are for educational purpose only and we do not guarentee the accuracy of results. Please do consult with other sources as well.