Calculator Inputs
Use your local normal date, then refine with microclimate adjustments.
Example Data
These scenarios show how adjustments can shift the date.
| Scenario | Normal (MM/DD) | Elevation diff (m) | Urban | Water | Custom (days) | Result (approx) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 10/20 | 0 | None | None | 0 | ~Oct 20 |
| Hill garden | 10/20 | +300 | None | None | -2 | ~Oct 13–16 |
| Urban near water | 10/20 | 0 | Moderate | Near | +1 | ~Oct 27–30 |
| Hard frost threshold | 10/20 | 0 | Light | None | 0 | ~Oct 29 |
Example results assume a 28°F shift of +7 days and a typical elevation factor.
Formula Used
A practical, adjustable model for planning and comparisons.
The calculator starts from a local normal first frost date and applies day-based adjustments:
Adjusted Date = Normal Date + Round(Total Adjustment Days)
Total Adjustment = Elevation + Urban + Water + Custom + Trend + Threshold Shift
- Elevation adjustment: -(GardenElev − StationElev) / 100 × DaysPer100m
- Trend adjustment: TrendDaysPerDecade × (PlanningYear − NormalsCenterYear) / 10
- Threshold shift: added only for the 28°F option.
The likely window uses a normal-approximation interval:
Half-Width = ceil(z × VariabilityDays)
Window = Adjusted Date ± Half-Width
z is chosen from the selected confidence level (two‑sided interval).
This tool provides planning estimates. Local cold air drainage, cloud cover, and wind can shift frost by days to weeks.
How to Use This Calculator
A simple workflow that improves decisions in autumn.
- Find a normal first frost month/day from a nearby weather station or local guide.
- Set the threshold: 32°F for light frost, 28°F for harder frost risk.
- Enter station and garden elevations, then adjust the elevation factor if needed.
- Choose urban and water settings to reflect your site’s nighttime warmth.
- Add a custom adjustment for known microclimate effects in your garden.
- Pick variability and confidence to get a realistic date window.
- Calculate, then export to CSV or PDF to share or compare scenarios.