Sampling Strategy and Signal Coverage
Sampling rate is the fastest lever for controlling trace spend. If your services produce 250 traces per second and you sample 20%, you keep 50 traces per second for analysis. Across a 30‑day month, that becomes roughly 131 million sampled traces. Use higher sampling only on critical paths, error responses, or latency outliers to increase signal without capturing everything, and review sampling rules after major traffic shifts.
Span Volume Drivers You Can Measure
Span volume is the next driver, because ingestion is priced per span and storage grows with span bytes. Multiply sampled traces by average spans per trace to estimate sampled spans per month. A typical web request might create 15-30 spans; deeper microservice chains can exceed 60. Trim high‑cardinality attributes, reduce large event payloads, and standardize span size assumptions using real exporter metrics to prevent cost surprises when teams add instrumentation.
Retention Policy and Storage Curve
Retention determines how long data occupies storage, so costs scale with days kept. The calculator estimates average stored gigabytes as daily stored GB multiplied by retention days, which approximates a rolling window in steady state. If you ingest 300 GB per month after compression, that is about 10 GB per day; at 14 days retention, average storage is near 138 GB. Align retention with incident response needs and compliance rules.
Indexing and Query Efficiency Tradeoffs
Indexing improves search and aggregates, but it adds extra storage. Treat indexed percent as the share of stored trace data that becomes searchable, then apply an overhead factor to represent index structures. For example, indexing 40% of stored traces with a one-and-a-half factor means index data is about 60% of stored trace GB. Keep indexes lean by indexing only query‑critical fields and using sampling for exploratory analysis.
Budget Guardrails and Scenario Reviews
Budget control works best with repeatable scenarios. Start with a target monthly ceiling, then test conservative, balanced, and deep‑dive configurations. Track unit economics like cost per 1000 sampled traces and cost per 1M sampled spans to compare services fairly. Add egress estimates if dashboards export large datasets. Revisit assumptions quarterly, or when traffic, span counts, or retention policies change materially.