Plan entries, exits, and capital allocation with greater confidence. Review downside, leverage, and expected value. Balance ambition using structured numbers for steadier decisions always.
These example figures match the default inputs shown in the calculator.
| Metric | Example Value | Metric | Example Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Direction | Long | Portfolio Size | $20,000.00 |
| Risk per Trade | 1.50% | Allocation Cap | 25.00% |
| Entry Price | $50,000.00 | Stop Price | $48,000.00 |
| Target Price | $56,000.00 | Leverage | 2.00x |
| Daily Volatility | 4.00% | Holding Period | 5 days |
| Win Probability | 48.00% | Confidence Level | 95% |
| Recommended Size | 0.139535 coins | Position Notional | $6,976.74 |
| Net Loss at Stop | $300.00 | Net Gain at Target | $816.28 |
| Risk to Reward | 2.72 : 1 | 95% VaR | $1,026.45 |
Risk Budget
Risk Budget = Portfolio Size × (Risk per Trade ÷ 100)
Allocation Cap in Dollars
Allocation Cap = Portfolio Size × (Allocation Cap % ÷ 100)
Price Risk per Coin
Price Risk = |Entry Price − Stop Price|
Round-Trip Cost per Coin
Cost per Coin = Entry Price × 2 × ((Fee % + Slippage %) ÷ 100)
Position Size by Risk
Qty by Risk = Risk Budget ÷ (Price Risk + Cost per Coin)
Position Size by Allocation
Qty by Allocation = (Allocation Cap Dollars × Leverage) ÷ Entry Price
Recommended Position Size
Recommended Qty = Minimum of Qty by Risk and Qty by Allocation
Net Loss at Stop
Net Loss = (Recommended Qty × Price Risk) + Trading Costs
Net Gain at Target
Net Gain = (Recommended Qty × Reward per Coin) − Trading Costs
Risk to Reward Ratio
Risk/Reward = Net Gain at Target ÷ Net Loss at Stop
Expected Value
EV = (Win Probability × Net Gain) − ((1 − Win Probability) × Net Loss)
Parametric VaR
VaR = z-score × Daily Volatility × √Holding Days × Position Notional
Kelly Fraction
Kelly = p − ((1 − p) ÷ b), where p = win probability and b = reward-to-risk ratio
This model is practical for planning, but it is still simplified. Funding rates, liquidation bands, exchange maintenance margin rules, sudden gaps, and liquidity holes can all change real outcomes.
It estimates position size, expected stop loss, target gain, leverage-adjusted exposure, simple value at risk, and expectancy. It helps you decide whether a planned trade fits your portfolio rules before you enter.
Crypto traders often underestimate execution costs. Small percentages become meaningful when position sizes or leverage grow. Including both makes stop-loss risk and target reward more realistic.
Risk sizing limits how much you lose if the stop gets hit. Allocation sizing limits how much capital you commit. The calculator chooses the tighter limit to stay disciplined.
No. VaR is a statistical estimate based on volatility and confidence assumptions. It does not protect against gaps, low liquidity, exchange outages, or unusually violent market moves.
The grade rises when leverage, volatility, portfolio risk, or modeled VaR become aggressive. It is a planning signal, not a prediction, and it encourages smaller size or tighter rules.
Yes. Select short, then enter a stop above entry and a target below entry. The calculator adjusts validation and still measures risk using absolute price distance.
Expected value combines your win probability with the net gain and net loss estimates. A positive value suggests the setup may be favorable over many repeated trades.
Usually not. Full Kelly can be too aggressive for volatile assets. Many traders use half-Kelly or less, especially when win-rate estimates are uncertain or market conditions change quickly.
Important Note: All the Calculators listed in this site are for educational purpose only and we do not guarentee the accuracy of results. Please do consult with other sources as well.