Calculated Results
Contribution Graph
Calculator Inputs
The page uses one main vertical layout, while the input controls adapt to three columns on large screens, two on medium screens, and one on mobile.
Detailed Output Table
| Label | Amount | Probability | Time | Discount Factor | Expected Future Value | Expected Present Value | Variance Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calculate to populate this table. | |||||||
Formula Used
For each cash flow row:
Expected Future Value: EFVi = CFi × pi
Periodic Discount Factor: DFi = 1 / (1 + r / m)m × ti
Continuous Discount Factor: DFi = e-r × ti
Expected Present Value: EPVi = CFi × pi × DFi
Total Expected Present Value: EPV = Σ EPVi
Variance Contribution: Vari = pi(1 - pi)(CFi × DFi)²
Total Standard Deviation: σ = √(Σ Vari)
Here, CF is the cash flow amount, p is the event probability in decimal form, r is the annual discount rate in decimal form, m is the compounding periods per year, and t is the timing in years.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the currency symbol, discount rate, decimal precision, and discounting mode.
- Add each possible cash flow as a separate row.
- For every row, type a label, amount, probability, and timing in years.
- Press Calculate Expected Present Value to show the result above the form.
- Review the summary metrics, detailed table, and contribution graph.
- Export the output as CSV or PDF when needed.
Example Data Table
You can use these sample values to test the tool quickly.
| Label | Cash Flow Amount | Probability (%) | Time (Years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Project A | 10000 | 90 | 1 |
| Project B | 14000 | 60 | 2 |
| Project C | 8000 | 75 | 3 |
| Salvage Value | 4000 | 50 | 4 |
Frequently Asked Questions
1) What does expected present value measure?
It measures the current worth of uncertain future cash flows after weighting each payment by its probability and discounting it for time.
2) Why is discounting necessary?
Discounting reflects time value. Money expected later is usually worth less today because capital can earn returns, inflation may reduce buying power, and uncertainty grows over time.
3) When should I use continuous discounting?
Use continuous discounting when your model assumes value changes at every instant, or when you want a finance-style exponential discount framework for smoother timing analysis.
4) Can this calculator handle negative cash flows?
Yes. Negative values work for costs, losses, or outflows. They reduce total expected present value and appear in the detailed table and chart.
5) What does the certainty ratio mean?
It compares total expected present value with the total present value you would receive if every listed cash flow happened with certainty.
6) How is the standard deviation estimated here?
The calculator uses a Bernoulli-style variance formula for each row and assumes rows are independent. It gives a practical uncertainty estimate, not a full correlation model.
7) What timing unit should I enter?
Enter timing in years. Fractions are allowed, so six months becomes 0.5 and eighteen months becomes 1.5.
8) Can I export the results for reports?
Yes. Use the CSV button for spreadsheet work and the PDF button for printable summaries, tables, and graph output.