Lognormal Distribution Probability Calculator

Calculate lognormal PDF, CDF, range probability, and percentiles. Visualize outcomes with charts, formulas, and exports. Make probability decisions using clear inputs and reliable outputs.

Calculator Inputs

This calculator assumes natural logarithms. Enter μ and σ for ln(X), then evaluate density, cumulative chance, tail chance, interval probability, and percentiles.

Location parameter for the underlying normal distribution.
Scale parameter. It must be greater than zero.
Used for density, cumulative, right-tail, and z-value.
Start value for interval probability P(a ≤ X ≤ b).
End value for interval probability. Must exceed a.
Enter percent form, such as 90 for the 90th percentile.
Controls the displayed precision in outputs and exports.

Example Data Table

The following example uses μ = 1.1, σ = 0.45, x = 3.5, interval [2, 5], and percentile p = 90%.

Metric Example Value Meaning
PDF at x = 3.5 0.239114 Relative density around 3.5.
CDF at x = 3.5 0.632873 Probability that X is 3.5 or less.
Right-tail probability 0.367127 Probability that X exceeds 3.5.
Range probability [2, 5] 0.688234 Probability that X falls between 2 and 5.
90th percentile 5.347869 Value below which 90% of outcomes lie.
Mean 3.324270 Expected value of the lognormal distribution.
Median 3.004166 Middle point of the distribution.
Mode 2.453462 Most likely location of the density peak.

Formula Used

Let Y = ln(X). If Y ~ N(μ, σ²), then X follows a lognormal distribution.

1) Probability density function

f(x) = [1 / (xσ√(2π))] × exp(- (ln(x) - μ)² / (2σ²)), for x > 0

2) Cumulative distribution function

F(x) = Φ((ln(x) - μ) / σ)

3) Right-tail probability

P(X > x) = 1 - F(x)

4) Interval probability

P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = F(b) - F(a)

5) Percentile or quantile

xp = exp(μ + σΦ-1(p))

6) Summary measures

Mean = exp(μ + σ² / 2)
Median = exp(μ)
Mode = exp(μ - σ²)
Variance = (exp(σ²) - 1) × exp(2μ + σ²)

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter the location parameter μ for the normal distribution of ln(X).
  2. Enter the scale parameter σ. It must be positive.
  3. Provide an x value to measure density, cumulative chance, and tail probability.
  4. Enter lower and upper bounds to evaluate interval probability.
  5. Enter a percentile in percent form, such as 90 or 95.
  6. Choose the number of decimal places for your displayed outputs.
  7. Press the calculate button to show results directly above the form.
  8. Use the CSV and PDF buttons to export your final results.

Frequently Asked Questions

1) What is a lognormal distribution?

A lognormal distribution models positive values whose natural logarithms are normally distributed. It appears in growth processes, waiting times, prices, sizes, and other right-skewed data.

2) When should I use a lognormal model?

Use it when the variable cannot be negative and the data are strongly right-skewed. It is useful for multiplicative effects, compounding, and values that vary across several scales.

3) What do μ and σ represent here?

They belong to the normal distribution of ln(X), not to X itself. μ controls location on the log scale, while σ controls spread and skewness.

4) Why must x be greater than zero?

The lognormal distribution is only defined for positive values because it uses the natural logarithm of x. Zero or negative inputs are outside the model.

5) What is the difference between PDF and CDF?

The PDF shows relative density at one point. The CDF gives the cumulative probability that the variable is less than or equal to a chosen value.

6) What does the percentile output mean?

The percentile output gives the x value below which a chosen proportion of outcomes fall. The 90th percentile means 90% of values are at or below it.

7) Can I use percentages like 90 instead of 0.90?

Yes. This calculator accepts percentile entries in percent form. If you enter 90, it automatically converts the value to 0.90 for quantile calculations.

8) Why are the mean, median, and mode different?

A lognormal distribution is skewed to the right. That skew pulls the mean highest, keeps the median in the middle, and places the mode nearer the density peak.

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