Enter Portfolio Scenario Inputs
Example Data Table
| Scenario | Projects | Budget Change | Benefit Change | Delay | Risk Change | Priority View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | 8 | -5% | +15% | -1 month | -8 | Accelerate high-value initiatives |
| Base Case | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0 months | 0 | Maintain current sequence |
| Pessimistic | 8 | +10% | -12% | +3 months | +12 | Review scope and contingency |
| Stress | 8 | +18% | -20% | +6 months | +20 | Defer or redesign portfolio |
Formula Used
Adjusted Budget = Base Budget × (1 + Budget Change ÷ 100)
Adjusted Annual Benefit = Annual Gross Benefit × (1 + Benefit Change ÷ 100)
Adjusted Net Benefit = Adjusted Annual Benefit − Annual Operating Cost
Present Value Factor = (1 − (1 + r)−n) ÷ r, or simply n when the rate is zero.
Discounted Portfolio Value = Adjusted Net Benefit × Present Value Factor
Scenario NPV = Discounted Portfolio Value − Adjusted Budget
Risk-Adjusted Value = Scenario NPV × Risk Factor × Confidence Factor × Probability Factor × Schedule Penalty Factor
Priority Index = 40% BCR score + 30% strategic score + 15% confidence + 15% inverse risk
The schedule penalty factor bottoms at 0.50, preventing unrealistic negative timing effects while still penalizing material delays.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the scenario name and choose a preset.
- Add the number of active or planned projects.
- Input baseline capital budget, annual benefit, and annual operating cost.
- Set timeline, discount rate, and analysis horizon.
- Score strategic alignment, base risk, and execution confidence.
- Adjust scenario probability, budget change, benefit change, delay, and risk shift.
- Submit the form to display scenario results above the calculator.
- Download the calculated results as CSV or PDF for reporting.
FAQs
1. What does this calculator evaluate?
It evaluates how cost, benefit, timing, risk, and confidence changes affect a project portfolio under a selected scenario. The output helps prioritize funding and sequencing decisions.
2. Why is a discount rate included?
The discount rate converts future annual net benefits into present value. That makes competing scenarios easier to compare on a financially consistent basis.
3. What is the risk-adjusted value?
Risk-adjusted value reduces raw scenario value using risk, confidence, probability, and schedule penalties. It offers a more practical estimate than unadjusted net present value.
4. How should I set scenario probability?
Use your planning assumption for how likely the scenario is to occur. Teams often assign lower percentages to stress cases and higher percentages to base cases.
5. What does the priority index mean?
The priority index combines financial efficiency, strategy, confidence, and inverse risk into one score. Higher values indicate stronger candidates for prioritization.
6. Can I analyze negative benefit changes?
Yes. Negative benefit changes reduce projected returns and may push the scenario toward reassessment, especially when combined with delay and budget inflation.
7. How does schedule change affect the result?
Positive delay values lengthen delivery time and apply a schedule penalty. This reduces the risk-adjusted value because delayed outcomes are usually less attractive.
8. When should I use custom mode?
Use custom mode when preset assumptions no longer reflect your real case. It is ideal for workshop decisions, portfolio reviews, and executive what-if analysis.