Supply Chain Disruption Risk Calculator

Enter supply chain risk inputs

Use percentage scores for direct risks, higher values meaning more risk. Use visibility and cyber readiness as strength scores, where higher values reduce risk.

Supplier or node name

Region

Currency

Disruption probability (0–100)

Likelihood of a meaningful disruption event.

Impact severity (0–100)

Revenue, service, or production impact.

Single-source dependency (0–100)

Higher values mean fewer sourcing options.

Average lead time (days)

Normalized against a 120-day ceiling.

Recovery time (days)

Normalized against a 60-day ceiling.

Inventory buffer (days)

More buffer lowers risk.

Alternate suppliers available

Five or more is treated as strong redundancy.

Supplier financial risk (0–100)

Stress, credit weakness, or liquidity pressure.

Transport volatility (0–100)

Lane instability, congestion, or rate shocks.

Geopolitical exposure (0–100)

Trade barriers, sanctions, or conflict pressure.

Visibility score (0–100)

Higher visibility reduces risk.

Cyber readiness (0–100)

Higher readiness reduces supplier interruption risk.

Quality instability (0–100)

Defects, rework, and process inconsistency.

Annual spend

Used for estimated disruption loss.

Revenue at risk (%)

Share of annual spend exposed during disruption.

Downtime cost per day

Daily operational loss during recovery.

Formula used

The calculator converts timing and resilience inputs into 0–100 risk scores, then applies weighted aggregation to produce one overall disruption score.

Lead Time Risk = min((Lead Time Days / 120) × 100, 100)
Recovery Risk = min((Recovery Days / 60) × 100, 100)
Inventory Risk = 100 − min((Inventory Buffer Days / 45) × 100, 100)
Alternate Supplier Risk = 100 − min((Alternate Suppliers / 5) × 100, 100)
Visibility Weakness = 100 − Visibility Score
Cyber Weakness = 100 − Cyber Readiness

Overall Risk Score =
(0.13 × Disruption Probability) +
(0.14 × Impact Severity) +
(0.10 × Single-Source Dependency) +
(0.08 × Lead Time Risk) +
(0.08 × Recovery Risk) +
(0.08 × Inventory Risk) +
(0.07 × Alternate Supplier Risk) +
(0.08 × Financial Risk) +
(0.07 × Transport Volatility) +
(0.07 × Geopolitical Exposure) +
(0.04 × Visibility Weakness) +
(0.03 × Cyber Weakness) +
(0.03 × Quality Instability)

Estimated Disruption Loss =
(Overall Risk Score / 100) ×
[(Annual Spend × Revenue at Risk %) + (Downtime Cost per Day × Recovery Days)]

The weighted model emphasizes likelihood, impact, dependency, and recoverability, while still accounting for resilience levers such as visibility, cyber readiness, and supplier redundancy.

How to use this calculator

Enter the supplier, node, or corridor you want to assess.
Rate direct risks such as probability, impact, financial stress, and geopolitical exposure on a 0–100 scale.
Enter operational timing values like lead time, recovery days, and inventory buffer days.
Add resilience inputs such as alternate suppliers, visibility score, and cyber readiness.
Include annual spend, revenue at risk, and downtime cost for estimated loss.
Press calculate to show the score, loss estimate, key drivers, and graph above the form.

Example data table

Supplier	Region	Probability	Impact	Lead Time	Buffer	Alternates	Risk Score	Band
Semiconductor Hub A	East Asia	68	82	56 days	8 days	1	74.20	High
Packaging Partner B	South Asia	44	58	24 days	20 days	3	49.85	Moderate
Raw Material Source C	South America	61	76	48 days	10 days	0	72.10	High
Regional Distributor D	Europe	22	35	10 days	30 days	4	25.90	Moderate

Use the example rows to benchmark your own inputs or compare multiple suppliers using the same scoring framework.

FAQs

1. What does the overall score represent?

It represents combined disruption pressure after weighting likelihood, impact, dependency, recovery, logistics, and resilience controls. Higher scores signal greater continuity risk and weaker protective capacity.

2. Why do higher visibility and cyber scores reduce risk?

Strong visibility helps teams detect issues earlier, while cyber readiness lowers interruption chances from attacks, outages, or system compromise. Both improve control and shorten response time.

3. How should I choose 0–100 risk ratings?

Use internal scoring policies when available. Otherwise, map 0 as negligible, 50 as material, and 100 as severe. Consistency across suppliers matters more than perfect precision.

4. Does the calculator work for multi-tier suppliers?

Yes. You can score any supplier, lane, plant, warehouse, or logistics node. For multi-tier analysis, calculate each critical node separately and compare the results.

5. What is the estimated disruption loss?

It is a scenario-based financial indicator using annual spend exposure, revenue at risk, downtime cost, and the final disruption score. It helps prioritize mitigation budgets.

6. Why is lead time converted into a risk score?

Longer lead times usually reduce flexibility and slow recovery. Normalizing them into a 0–100 score makes them comparable with percentage-based risk inputs.

7. Can I compare different suppliers with this page?

Yes. Enter one supplier at a time and record the results, or export each scenario as CSV or PDF. This supports consistent side-by-side supplier ranking.

8. What score usually needs immediate action?

Scores at 75 or above are labeled severe and usually justify immediate action, especially when the node is single-sourced, slow to recover, or financially critical.