About this Comparison
A heat pump moves heat instead of creating heat by combustion. That difference changes the yearly bill, fuel demand, and carbon output. A gas furnace burns fuel and sends heat through a duct system. Its cost depends on gas price, appliance efficiency, and fixed service charges. This calculator compares both systems with the same heat load, so the result is easier to read.
Efficiency and Chemistry
The main chemistry link is combustion. Natural gas releases heat when methane reacts with oxygen. The reaction forms carbon dioxide and water vapor. A furnace can be very efficient, but it still needs fuel. A heat pump uses electricity to move heat from outside air or the ground. Its performance is shown as COP. A COP of 3 means three units of heat are delivered for one unit of electricity.
Using the Calculator
Enter your yearly useful heat demand in MMBtu. Then add your electric rate, gas price, furnace AFUE, maintenance, fixed charges, and costs. The tool estimates energy use, annual operating cost, emissions, payback, and discounted lifetime cost. It also includes escalation rates, discount rate, carbon price, and equipment life. These options help compare a quick yearly view with a longer ownership view.
Reading the Results
Results are estimates. Real systems vary with climate, duct leakage, thermostat settings, defrost cycles, zoning, and backup heat. Cold weather can lower heat pump COP. Poor ducts can reduce either system's delivered comfort. A right sized unit, sealed ducts, and service can change the real result more than a small price difference.
Planning Notes
Use the output as a planning guide. If the heat pump has lower annual cost and lower lifetime cost, it may be the better economic option. If the furnace wins on cost, check emissions and comfort needs too. Review utility bills for real prices. Ask a licensed contractor for sizing and installation details before buying equipment.
Example Data
The example table shows common scenarios. It is not a price quote. It simply explains how different assumptions can move the answer. Small changes in COP, AFUE, or rates can create large cost differences over many years. For best accuracy, replace every default value with numbers from bills, bids, and climate records.