Solar Inflation Sensitivity Calculator

Model inflation impacts on lifetime solar costs. Compare low, base, and high OPEX escalation scenarios. Make stronger bids using clearer risk ranges for stakeholders.

Tip: Use realistic discount rates for your financing conditions.

Calculator Inputs

Total installed cost in today's money.
Used for midpoint CAPEX escalation.
Applies during the build period.
Annual operating cost for first full year.
Conservative escalation assumption.
Most likely escalation assumption.
Stress test escalation assumption.
Years of OPEX and energy included.
Expected first-year production.
Energy drops each year by this percent.
Used for NPV and discounted energy.
Reset

Example Data Table

Parameter Example Value Notes
CAPEX today$850,000Total installed cost before commissioning escalation.
Construction duration12 monthsMidpoint escalation uses 6 months average spend timing.
CAPEX inflation6%/yrApplied only during the build window.
OPEX year 1$18,000/yrFirst full operating year cost baseline.
OPEX inflation2% / 4% / 6%Low, base, and high escalation scenarios.
Project life25 yearsYears of OPEX and energy included.
Annual energy1,550,000 kWhFirst-year production before degradation.
Degradation0.5%/yrEnergy reduction applied each year.
Discount rate8%/yrUsed for NPV of costs and discounted energy.
Run the calculator with these values to reproduce a sample sensitivity spread.

Formula Used

CAPEX escalation to commissioning
CAPEXCOD = CAPEXtoday × (1 + icapex)(M/24)
M is construction months. M/24 uses midpoint spending time.
OPEX escalation
OPEXt = OPEX1 × (1 + iopex)(t−1)
Scenario uses low, base, or high iopex.
NPV of OPEX
NPV(OPEX) = Σt=1..N OPEXt / (1 + d)t
d is discount rate. N is project life in years.
Discounted energy and LCOE
Et = E1 × (1 − g)(t−1)
PV(E) = Σ Et / (1 + d)t
LCOE = (CAPEXCOD + NPV(OPEX)) / PV(E)
g is degradation. LCOE is levelized cost per kWh.

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter CAPEX today and expected construction duration.
  2. Set a CAPEX inflation rate that matches your market.
  3. Enter first-year OPEX and three escalation scenarios.
  4. Provide project life, annual energy, and degradation.
  5. Choose a discount rate aligned with your financing.
  6. Click “Calculate Sensitivity” to see scenario results.
  7. Download CSV or PDF to share with stakeholders.

Why inflation sensitivity matters for solar budgets

Solar projects combine large upfront procurement with multi-year operations. When inflation shifts, the same design can deliver a different lifetime cost profile. This calculator stress-tests OPEX escalation and CAPEX inflation so you can quantify downside exposure, refine contingency, and communicate assumptions clearly.

CAPEX timing risk during procurement and construction

Equipment pricing, logistics, and contractor rates can move during the build window. A practical approach is to escalate CAPEX to a commissioning point using midpoint spending time. This converts “today’s estimate” into a commissioning-adjusted value that aligns better with purchase orders and progress payments.

OPEX escalation scenarios and their cost impact

OPEX includes cleaning, vegetation control, inverter service, monitoring, insurance, and site overheads. Small percentage changes compound over decades, affecting the net present value of costs. Low, base, and high escalation scenarios help contract managers compare service agreements and set realistic escalation clauses.

NPV-based LCOE interpretation for decision making

The calculator discounts yearly OPEX and energy to today’s value, then computes LCOE as NPV cost divided by discounted energy. Higher discount rates reduce the weight of later cashflows and energy, while degradation reduces long-term production. Use consistent discount rates across options to keep comparisons fair. Consider running sensitivity on escalation steps and service contracts, then align escalation clauses with CPI-linked indices. For lenders and owners, document inflation sources, base years, and the rationale behind low and high bounds to improve auditability.

Example data to reproduce a sensitivity check

Example inputs: CAPEX $850,000, construction 12 months, CAPEX inflation 6%/yr, OPEX year 1 $18,000, OPEX inflation 2% / 4% / 6%, life 25 years, annual energy 1,550,000 kWh, degradation 0.5%/yr, discount 8%/yr. Run the model, then export CSV for bid files or internal review notes.

FAQs

1) What does “CAPEX at commissioning” represent?

It is the installed cost escalated from today to an average spending time during construction. It approximates what you effectively pay by the time the system enters service.

2) Why are three OPEX inflation cases included?

Operations costs are uncertain and can move with labor, spares, and insurance. Using low, base, and high cases shows how compounding escalation changes total cost and LCOE.

3) What discount rate should I use?

Use your project’s after-tax weighted cost of capital or required return. For internal comparisons, keep the same discount rate across scenarios so differences reflect inflation and performance assumptions.

4) Does the calculator include revenue or tariff escalation?

No. It focuses on cost and energy to report NPV cost and LCOE. You can pair these outputs with a separate revenue model to estimate NPV profit or IRR.

5) How is panel degradation applied?

Annual energy declines each year by the degradation rate. This reduces discounted lifetime energy, which can raise LCOE even if costs stay unchanged.

6) Can I model replacement items like inverters?

This version treats OPEX as an annual series. To reflect replacements, increase OPEX in the affected years by editing the model logic, or approximate with a higher OPEX baseline.

7) Why do nominal OPEX and NPV OPEX differ?

Nominal OPEX is the simple sum of inflated yearly costs. NPV OPEX discounts those yearly costs back to today, so later costs contribute less to the present-value total.

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Important Note: All the Calculators listed in this site are for educational purpose only and we do not guarentee the accuracy of results. Please do consult with other sources as well.