Sales Bid Success Calculator

Formula used

How to use this calculator

1. Enter your historical bids and wins for a consistent time period.
2. Add typical deal value, margin, and your average bid preparation effort.
3. Score the current opportunity honestly using the 0–10 sliders.
4. Set risk factors, competitor count, and any planned discount.
5. Click Calculate to view probability, expected profit, and break-even win chance.
6. Use downloads to share results or track saved runs over time.

Historic win rate as your starting point

Your total bids and wins create a baseline probability you can defend. If you won 10 of 40 bids, the baseline is 25%. Update it each period so it reflects your positioning and pipeline mix. When history is thin, the model leans more on opportunity scoring to reduce noise.

Opportunity scoring turns judgment into a number

The 0–10 sliders capture signals that often decide bids: relationship, fit, differentiation, price, decision access, and timeline. Each slider is weighted (fit and decision access carry 20% each), so lifting fit by 2 points can matter more than shaving price. Weights range from 12% to 20%, steering attention to the highest leverage factors. A score near 70% indicates traction, not certainty, and should be backed by bid evidence.

Bid cost protects your calendar

Bid prep hours multiplied by your hourly cost rate converts effort into a real investment. This lets you compare two bids with similar revenue but different workloads. The calculator also outputs a break-even probability: if break-even is 38%, any bid below that needs rework, a faster process, or a higher margin. Use it as a no-bid trigger when the deal is small or the team is overloaded. Low ROI usually means the bid is under-qualified.

Discount decisions should be deliberate

Discount reduces effective value immediately, so a 10% discount lowers a 25,000 deal to 22,500. The model applies only a small probability boost from discounting, because price rarely fixes weak fit or unclear decision paths. Use discount as a tie-breaker, and protect margin where delivery risk is high.

Plan a portfolio, not a single gamble

Use planned bids and revenue goal to see the win rate your pipeline must achieve. If you plan 12 bids at 22,500 effective value, a 120,000 goal implies about a 44% required win rate. Compare that to your adjusted probability to decide whether to raise quality, add volume, or qualify harder. Risk inputs reduce probability, and competitor count adds penalty, so identical scores behave differently in crowded markets. Save runs and compare predicted win% versus outcomes to calibrate scoring.

FAQs

1) What does adjusted win probability mean?

It is a blended estimate based on your historical win rate, your opportunity quality scores, and risk factors like competition and compliance. Use it to compare bids consistently, not to predict a specific outcome with certainty.

2) How should I score the 0–10 sliders?

Score using observable evidence: stakeholder access, documented requirements, unique differentiators, and realistic delivery dates. Keep scoring consistent across bids. If unsure, score slightly lower and add a note in your bid log for review.

3) What is break-even probability?

It is the minimum win chance required for gross profit to cover your bid preparation cost. If your adjusted probability is below break-even, reduce effort, improve fit and access, raise margin, or consider a no-bid decision.

4) How does discount change the outputs?

Discount lowers effective deal value immediately, reducing expected revenue and profit. The calculator applies only a modest probability lift for discounting, so discounting rarely compensates for weak fit or high risk. Use it selectively.

5) What if I do not have enough past bids?

Enter your best estimate, then rely more on the opportunity quality sliders and risk inputs. As you accumulate outcomes, update total bids and wins each period. The model becomes more stable when you have consistent history.

6) How can saved runs help my career planning?

Save runs for key bids, then compare predicted win% and profit against actual outcomes. Over time you will see which levers matter in your market, improve qualification discipline, and better forecast workload versus goals.