Advanced calculator for decision analysis under uncertainty featuring editable outcomes probabilities and utility choices with instant charts certainty equivalent and risk premium. Supports linear CRRA and CARA utility with adjustable risk aversion. Export tables and charts easily as CSV or PDF for reports and classroom use. Includes example dataset intuitive design and responsive layout
Outcome x | Probability p | Utility U(x) | Action |
---|---|---|---|
– | |||
– | |||
– | |||
Scenario | Outcome x | Probability p |
---|---|---|
Loss | 50 | 0.20 |
Base | 100 | 0.50 |
Gain | 200 | 0.30 |
The expected utility of a discrete lottery with outcomes xi and probabilities pi is
Supported utility functions:
Certainty equivalent (CE) is the sure x such that U(CE) = E[U(x)]. We invert U to obtain:
Risk premium is RP = E[x] − CE. Positive RP indicates risk aversion.
1) What is the difference between CRRA and CARA?
CRRA models relative risk aversion constant across wealth scales, while CARA models absolute risk aversion constant regardless of wealth level.
2) What if my probabilities do not sum to 1?
Use the Normalize button to rescale them proportionally. Alternatively, adjust the values manually until the total equals 1.
3) Why is expected utility negative under CARA?
Because U(x) = −exp(−a x) is negative for all x. Comparisons use relative magnitudes rather than absolute level.
4) Why does CRRA require positive outcomes?
CRRA uses powers or logarithms of x, which are undefined for nonpositive values. Shift outcomes or choose CARA if your model includes losses.
5) What does risk premium mean?
It is the difference between the expected value and the certainty equivalent. Larger premiums indicate stronger aversion to risk.
Designed for courses in economics finance and decision theory and for practitioners evaluating risky projects lotteries insurance and investments.
Important Note: All the Calculators listed in this site are for educational purpose only and we do not guarentee the accuracy of results. Please do consult with other sources as well.