- Each input becomes a normalized risk factor from 0 to 1.
- A weighted base score is calculated: Base = Σ(weight × factor) × 100.
- Mitigation adjusts risk: Final = Base × Msan × Mscout × Mbar × Mbio × Mremove.
- Final score is limited to 0–100 and mapped to a risk category.
- Enter current weather and moisture conditions for your garden area.
- Set vector presence using scouting notes or trap counts.
- Choose crop susceptibility and growth stage for the plants at risk.
- Add mitigation details like sanitation, barriers, and scouting frequency.
- Click Calculate Risk and review drivers and actions.
- Download CSV or PDF for record-keeping and comparisons.
| # | Temp (°C) | Humidity (%) | Rain 7d (mm) | Vector | Sanitation | Score | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 78 | 40 | High | 4 | 66.0 | High |
| 2 | 18 | 55 | 10 | Low | 8 | 20.0 | Low |
| 3 | 30 | 88 | 70 | Medium | 2 | 86.4 | Severe |
| 4 | 12 | 40 | 5 | None | 9 | 8.0 | Low |
| 5 | 24 | 70 | 25 | Medium | 5 | 44.1 | Moderate |
Risk drivers in managed gardens
Vector pressure indicators
Scout notes, trap counts, and leaf inspections are the strongest predictors of near-term transmission. When presence moves from low to high, the model assigns the largest weight because acquisition and movement increase quickly. Track hotspots by bed, crop row, or greenhouse bay, and time-stamp observations to see acceleration.
Weather and moisture signal
Warm temperatures near 25°C, high humidity, and recent rainfall raise survival, feeding, and dispersal. Standing water adds breeding opportunity and prolongs wet surfaces. Use the seven-day rainfall total to capture short windows that often precede visible symptoms. A change from 15 mm to 60 mm can shift category even if vectors remain moderate.
Host susceptibility and canopy
Susceptible varieties, nutrient stress, and early growth stages increase damage from the same exposure. Dense planting reduces airflow and visibility, extending leaf wetness and delaying detection. Weed pressure matters because alternate hosts and sheltered edges help populations persist between treatments and crop cycles.
Mitigation levers and multipliers
Sanitation lowers risk by reducing inoculum on tools, benches, and debris. Frequent scouting shortens response time, while barriers reduce contact rates. Biocontrol programs can suppress vectors without extra wetness. Prompt removal of infected plants reduces pickup and secondary spread within the same block.
Example data and interpretation
Example input: 27°C, 80% humidity, 45 mm rain, standing water 6, vector high, susceptibility high, density medium, weeds medium, nearby outbreak yes, sprinkler irrigation, vegetative stage, sanitation 4, weekly scouting, barriers no, biocontrol basic, remove infected yes. Output typically lands near 70, rated High. For larger sites, record wind direction, shade, and irrigation runtime, because microclimates matter. Pair risk trends with simple thresholds: act above 55, intensify above 75, and document outcomes for learning. Use the top three drivers to target the fastest gains, then recalculate after changes and keep exports for season comparisons.
FAQs
1) What does the score represent?
The score estimates relative likelihood of vector-assisted disease spread under current conditions. It combines weighted risk factors, then applies mitigation multipliers. It is for prioritization, not a laboratory diagnosis.
2) Why can rainfall change the category quickly?
Rain increases leaf wetness and humidity, supports vector survival, and can splash pathogens between plants. A wet week often accelerates spread even before symptoms are widespread.
3) How should I choose “vector presence”?
Use your best evidence: scouting frequency, sticky trap counts, underside leaf checks, and visible damage. If uncertain, choose medium and update after the next inspection cycle.
4) Does drip irrigation always reduce risk?
It usually reduces leaf wetness compared with overhead watering, lowering spread potential. However, poor drainage, standing water, or high humidity can still keep risk elevated.
5) What sanitation score is considered strong?
Scores of 7–10 indicate consistent tool cleaning, debris removal, and orderly work zones. Improving from 3 to 7 can materially reduce the final score in this model.
6) How often should I recalculate?
Recalculate after major weather shifts, irrigation changes, new vector sightings, or control actions. Weekly updates during high-pressure periods help quantify improvement and keep decisions consistent.
7) Can I use this for any crop?
Yes, as a general framework. Adjust susceptibility based on variety and local experience, and interpret results alongside trusted local guidance, scouting records, and confirmed identifications.