Understanding AIC and BIC
AIC and BIC help compare statistical models. They do not prove one model is true. They show which model has stronger support within a chosen set. Lower values usually mean a better balance between fit and complexity.
AIC means Akaike Information Criterion. It rewards fit and penalizes extra parameters. It often works well when prediction is the main goal. It can favor flexible models when the sample is small.
BIC means Bayesian Information Criterion. It uses a stronger penalty as sample size grows. It often favors simpler models. It is useful when you want a compact explanation.
Why This Calculator Helps
Manual model comparison can be very slow. Each model needs a log likelihood, parameter count, and sample size. This calculator applies both formulas instantly. It also finds delta values, evidence ratios, and Akaike weights. These values make the comparison clearer.
Delta values show distance from the best model. A delta near zero means strong support. Larger deltas suggest weaker support. Akaike weights estimate relative support under the AIC set.
Good Inputs Matter
Use the same dataset for every model. Do not compare models fitted on different sample sizes unless the reason is clear. Keep the likelihood method consistent. Mixing methods can make the ranking misleading.
Count every estimated parameter. Include intercepts, variance terms, and shape terms when they are estimated. A wrong parameter count changes the penalty. That can change the final ranking.
Interpreting Results
The smallest AIC model is best by AIC. The smallest BIC model is best by BIC. Sometimes both criteria agree. When they disagree, review the project goal. AIC can suit prediction. BIC can suit parsimony.
Use this tool as a guide. Also inspect residuals, assumptions, diagnostics, and domain knowledge. A model with the lowest score can still be poor. Strong modeling requires both numbers and judgment.
Reporting Tips
Report the model name, log likelihood, k, n, AIC, BIC, and deltas. Include weights when using AIC. Explain why the selected model fits the study goal. Keep the comparison table with your records.
The CSV file is useful for spreadsheets. The PDF file is useful for reports. Both exports save the calculated results. That makes the selection process easier to review later.