Example Data Table
| Scenario |
Cases |
Case Price |
Key Price |
Fee |
Purpose |
| Small Test |
5 |
$0.50 |
$2.50 |
15% |
Check a low budget opening plan. |
| Standard Session |
20 |
$0.70 |
$2.50 |
15% |
Compare expected return with total cost. |
| Bulk Estimate |
100 |
$1.00 |
$2.50 |
15% |
Study long run expected value. |
Formula Used
Opening cost per case = case price + key price + extra cost.
Adjusted item value = average tier value × StatTrak factor × value adjustment factor.
Gross expected value = sum of each normalized probability × adjusted item value.
Net expected value = gross expected value after market fee and tax deductions.
Expected profit = net expected value − opening cost.
Total expected profit = expected profit per case × number of cases.
Chance of at least one target tier = 1 − (1 − target probability)number of cases.
How To Use This Calculator
Enter your currency symbol first. Add the number of cases you plan to open. Enter the case price, key price, and any extra cost. Add market fees and tax deductions. Then enter rarity odds and average resale values. Press the calculate button. The result will appear above the form.
Understanding CS GO Case Math
A CS GO case calculator helps you judge an opening plan before money is spent. It does not promise a skin. It turns prices, odds, fees, and resale values into one expected value. That makes risk easier to see.
Why Expected Value Matters
Every case has a cost. The case price, key price, and any extra charge form the opening cost. Each reward tier has a probability. Each tier also has an average resale value. Expected value multiplies every probability by its value. Then it adds all tier results together. The final number is the average return per case over many openings.
Fees Change The Result
Market fees can change a good looking result. A skin may sell for a fair amount, but the seller receives less after fees. This calculator applies the fee rate to expected resale value. It can also include tax or extra deductions. The net output shows a cleaner picture of real value.
Risk Is Still Large
Cases are random. A profitable expected value can still lose money in a small sample. A negative expected value can still hit a rare item. The calculator shows chances for each tier across all planned openings. It also estimates a simple risk range using standard deviation. This helps compare a small opening session with a larger one.
Using Custom Inputs
Prices and average values move often. Enter your own case price, key price, and average tier values. Use current marketplace averages when possible. Edit the rarity odds if you track different case types. Keep the total odds near one hundred percent. The calculator can normalize the rates, but clean inputs are better.
Reading The Output
The most important figures are net expected value, total expected profit, return on cost, and breakeven resale value. Positive profit means the average result beats cost after fees. Negative profit means the average result loses money. Use the data as a planning guide. Never treat it as a guarantee. Open fewer cases when the expected loss feels too high.
Good planning also includes limits. Set a maximum budget before opening. Save the result table for later review. Compare several cases. Pick the option with the smallest acceptable loss today.
FAQs
What does this calculator estimate?
It estimates expected return, profit, loss, odds, and resale impact for case openings. It uses your prices, fees, odds, and average item values.
Does it guarantee a result?
No. Case openings are random. The calculator shows mathematical averages only. A real opening session can be much better or much worse.
Why are market fees included?
Market fees reduce the amount you receive after selling an item. Including them gives a more realistic net expected value.
Can I change the rarity odds?
Yes. Edit every rarity percentage field. The calculator normalizes the odds when the total is not exactly one hundred percent.
What is expected value?
Expected value is the weighted average return. Each item tier value is multiplied by its chance, then all results are added.
What is breakeven resale value?
It is the average resale value needed per case to recover the opening cost after fees and deductions are applied.
Why add a StatTrak multiplier?
Some items may have higher resale value when StatTrak applies. The multiplier estimates that extra value inside the expected return.
Should I use live market prices?
Yes. Use fresh market prices whenever possible. Case prices, key prices, and skin values can move quickly.