Calculator Inputs
Formula Used
Average contract float: sum of each group count multiplied by its average float, divided by 10.
Total tickets: sum of input count from each collection multiplied by possible higher rarity outputs in that collection.
Outcome probability: input count from that output collection divided by total tickets.
Output float: minimum output float plus average contract float multiplied by the output float range.
Net value: market value multiplied by one minus the sale fee rate.
Expected value: sum of each listed outcome probability multiplied by its net value.
Profit: net output value minus total input cost.
How To Use This Calculator
Enter up to four input collection groups. Each group should show how many of the ten skins come from that collection.
Add the total cost and average float for each group. The count total should equal 10.
Enter how many possible higher rarity outputs exist in each collection. This controls the ticket pool.
List every possible output skin for the most complete expected value. Enter its collection, float range, and market value.
Press calculate. The result appears above the form and below the header section.
Use the CSV button for spreadsheet records. Use the PDF button for a simple result report.
Example Data Table
| Group | Collection | Input Count | Total Cost | Average Float | Output Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fracture Case | 4 | 12.00 | 0.080000 | 2 |
| 2 | Spectrum 2 Case | 3 | 9.00 | 0.120000 | 2 |
| 3 | Chroma 3 Case | 2 | 7.00 | 0.180000 | 2 |
| 4 | Gamma 2 Case | 1 | 3.00 | 0.060000 | 2 |
About This Trade Up Planner
A trade up contract is simple on the surface. Ten eligible skins go in. One higher rarity skin comes out. The real decision is not simple. Price, float, collection mix, fees, and outcome coverage all change the value. This calculator helps you test those parts before you risk items.
Why Float Matters
The output float is based on the average float of the ten input skins. Low floats can unlock better wear ranges. High floats can push an otherwise good result into a weaker condition. For this reason, the tool uses weighted input floats. Each collection group can have its own count and average float.
Why Collection Mix Matters
Trade up odds depend on the possible higher rarity results from the input collections. A collection with many possible outputs adds more tickets to the pool. A collection with fewer possible outputs adds fewer tickets. The calculator applies the common ticket based model. It also shows missing probability when you do not list every outcome.
Cost And Value Planning
Good contracts need more than one lucky result. You should compare total input cost with expected net value after sale fees. The expected value shows the average result over many identical contracts. One single attempt can still win or lose. Use the profit chance, best case, worst case, and break even value together.
Practical Tips
Enter realistic prices. Use current market values from the same marketplace when possible. Keep fees consistent. List every possible output if you want a complete expected value. Check float caps for each result. Some skins have special min and max ranges. Small errors can change the final wear. Treat every number as an estimate, not a guarantee. This planner supports smarter review before buying inputs. It cannot make a risky contract safe. Use the example table to understand the required inputs. Start with a small test contract. Then adjust one variable at a time. This makes the result easier to audit. Save the CSV for records. Export the PDF when sharing a plan with a team member. Recheck prices before purchase, because markets move quickly. Avoid contracts where missing outputs hide most of the probability. Clear inputs usually create better trade decisions.
FAQs
What does this calculator estimate?
It estimates trade up probabilities, output floats, net values, profit chances, and expected value based on your entered collections, costs, floats, fees, and possible outcomes.
Why must the input count equal 10?
A standard trade up contract uses ten eligible skins. If your count is not 10, the calculator warns you because the result will not represent a valid contract.
What is the ticket based probability model?
Each collection contributes tickets based on its input count and possible higher rarity outputs. A listed outcome chance equals its collection input count divided by total tickets.
Why do I need output float ranges?
Each output skin has its own float range. The final float uses the contract average float inside that range, so the same inputs can create different wear results.
What does unlisted probability mean?
It means some possible outcomes were not entered. Expected profit is incomplete until all possible output skins from the selected collections are listed.
Does profit chance guarantee profit?
No. Profit chance is only a probability estimate. One contract can still lose even when the average return looks strong.
Should I include marketplace fees?
Yes. Fees reduce the money received after selling the output. Including them gives a more realistic net value and profit estimate.
Can I save the results?
Yes. Use the CSV option for spreadsheet data. Use the PDF option for a simple report you can store or share.