Calculator
Example Data Table
| Target | Base Chance | Attempts | Estimated Success | Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Link | 18% | 20 | 98.08% | Early mapping item |
| 5 Link | 3% | 150 | 98.97% | Budget upgrade |
| 6 Link | 0.067% | 1500 | 63.40% | High value item |
Formula Used
Adjusted chance: p = base chance × (1 + quality bonus) × method multiplier.
Success chance: S = 1 - (1 - p)n.
Failure chance: F = (1 - p)n.
Expected attempts: E = 1 / p.
Attempts for confidence: n = log(1 - target confidence) / log(1 - p).
Expected cost: expected attempts × value of one fusing.
How to Use This Calculator
Enter the item name and socket count. Select the target link. Add your planned fusing attempts. Enter the chance per try. Use the preset chance, or type your own rate. Add currency values if you want cost and net value estimates. Press calculate. Review the result above the form.
Understanding Socket Links
Path of Exile item linking can feel random. A strong plan helps. This calculator turns a fusing plan into clear numbers. It estimates the chance of reaching a target link within a chosen budget. It also shows expected attempts, expected cost, break even cost, and risk.
Why Link Probability Matters
Each Orb of Fusing is one independent try. A single try may succeed or fail. Many tries build a larger success chance. The chance never becomes certain unless the probability is set to one. This is why a small base chance can still need many attempts.
Planning Currency
Players often compare manual linking with bench crafting or trade. Expected cost is useful for that choice. It is not a promise. It is the long run average. Your actual result may arrive early. It may also take far more tries. The probability curve shows that risk.
Advanced Inputs
Use the base chance field for your own source data. You can enter a preset chance, a market estimate, or a custom event rate. The quality multiplier lets you test improved odds. The safety target gives the number of attempts needed for a desired confidence level. The calculator also handles item value and resale value. These fields help estimate net gain or loss.
Reading the Result
The success chance tells how likely your budget is to hit the desired link. The failure chance is the remaining risk. Expected attempts equals one divided by the adjusted chance. Needed attempts uses logarithms to solve for the selected confidence target. Cost values multiply attempts by the chaos value of one fusing.
Best Use
Use this tool before using currency. Compare several budgets. Try conservative and aggressive chances. Then decide whether to craft, trade, or wait. The result works best when the entered chance matches your game version and method. Keep a margin for bad streaks. Random systems can surprise even careful players.
Helpful Limits
A calculator cannot read hidden game luck. It only uses the chance you provide. Treat every number as a planning estimate. For expensive items, test several assumptions. Small chance changes can move the cost a lot. Save results with CSV or PDF when comparing routes during a crafting session.
FAQs
What does this calculator estimate?
It estimates link success chance, failure risk, expected attempts, needed attempts, and currency cost. It uses your selected target links, attempt count, base chance, modifiers, and currency values.
Is the result guaranteed?
No. Linking is random. The calculator shows probability, not certainty. A high chance can still fail. A low chance can still hit early.
What should I enter for base chance?
Use the best rate you trust for your game version and method. You can use the preset as a rough planning value, then adjust it for your own assumptions.
Why does expected cost differ from budget cost?
Expected cost uses the long run average attempts. Budget cost uses the attempts you plan to spend now. Both values help compare crafting routes.
Can I calculate six links?
Yes. Set total sockets to six and target links to six. Then enter your planned attempts, chance rate, and cost per fusing.
What is confidence target?
It is the success chance you want to reach. The calculator estimates how many attempts are needed to reach that probability.
What does method multiplier mean?
It lets you test better or worse linking methods. A value of 1 keeps the base chance unchanged. A value of 1.2 increases the chance by twenty percent.
Why add item values?
Item values help estimate possible profit or loss. The calculator compares unlinked value, linked value, expected cost, and budget cost.