Skin Trade Up Calculator

Calculator Inputs

Global Settings

Market Fee (%)

Target Profit

Manual Outcome Odds

Normalize custom outcome chances

Ten Input Skins

Enter all ten input skins. Collection names must match the output collection names.

Input 1 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 2 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 3 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 4 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 5 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 6 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 7 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 8 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 9 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Input 10 Skin Name Collection Purchase Price Input Float

Possible Output Skins

List every possible next-rarity output for accurate odds.

Output 1 Output Skin Name Collection Market Price Minimum Float Maximum Float Manual Chance Weight

Output 2 Output Skin Name Collection Market Price Minimum Float Maximum Float Manual Chance Weight

Output 3 Output Skin Name Collection Market Price Minimum Float Maximum Float Manual Chance Weight

Output 4 Output Skin Name Collection Market Price Minimum Float Maximum Float Manual Chance Weight

Output 5 Output Skin Name Collection Market Price Minimum Float Maximum Float Manual Chance Weight

Output 6 Output Skin Name Collection Market Price Minimum Float Maximum Float Manual Chance Weight

Example Data Table

Input Mix	Total Cost	Average Float	Output Pool	Fee	Expected Use
5 skins from Collection A, 5 skins from Collection B	$13.25	0.10500	Four listed outcomes	15%	Compare expected value against total cost
10 skins from one collection	$18.00	0.07000	Two listed outcomes	10%	Check focused collection odds
Mixed low float inputs	$22.40	0.03500	Six listed outcomes	13%	Estimate float-sensitive outcome value

Formula Used

Collection weight = input skins from that collection / total input skins.

Outcome chance = collection weight / possible outputs from that collection.

Average input float = sum of ten input floats / 10.

Output float = average input float × (output max float − output min float) + output min float.

Net output value = output market price × (1 − market fee).

Expected value = sum of each outcome chance × each net output value.

Expected profit = expected value − total input cost.

ROI = expected profit / total input cost × 100.

How to Use This Calculator

Enter the names, collections, costs, and floats for ten input skins.
Add each possible output skin from the next rarity tier.
Use matching collection names for inputs and outputs.
Enter output prices and float ranges.
Set your market fee and target profit.
Enable manual odds only when you already know exact chance weights.
Press the calculate button.
Review expected profit, ROI, risk, and outcome details.
Download the result as a CSV or PDF file.

Skin Trade Up Planning Guide

Why Expected Value Matters

A trade up contract can look simple. Ten skins go in. One better skin comes out. The real decision is harder. Each output has a chance. Each output also has a different price, float range, and resale value. Expected value joins those parts. It shows the average return before luck affects the result.

Float Control

Float is often the hidden edge in a contract. A lower input average can create cleaner output wear. That can move an item into a better condition. Better condition may increase resale price. This calculator uses the standard float range formula. It helps you see whether premium low-float inputs are worth the cost.

Collection Mix

Collection mix controls outcome odds. If five inputs come from one collection, that collection receives half of the contract weight. If that collection has two listed outputs, each one receives half of that collection share. This makes mixed contracts useful. They can reduce cost or chase a special item. They can also add weaker outcomes.

Fees and Real Profit

Market fees can turn a winning hit into a weak result. Always compare net value, not only listing price. The calculator subtracts the fee before computing profit. It also shows break even gross price. That number helps you know the output price needed before fees.

Risk Review

No calculator removes risk. It only makes risk clearer. Check the chance of profit. Check the worst hit. Check your target profit chance. A contract with positive expected value can still lose often. Use current prices, complete output lists, and realistic fees before making any decision.

FAQs

1. What is a skin trade up calculator?

It estimates outcome odds, expected value, output float, profit, and risk for a ten-skin trade up contract.

2. Why must I enter ten input skins?

A normal trade up contract uses ten eligible skins. Using ten inputs gives correct collection weights, average float, and total cost.

3. How are output odds calculated?

The calculator divides each collection share by the number of listed outputs from that same collection.

4. What does expected value mean?

Expected value is the average net return across all possible outcomes. It is not a guaranteed result.

5. Why does market fee matter?

Market fee reduces the resale value of each outcome. Profit should be based on net value, not only listing price.

6. What is output float?

Output float is estimated from the average input float and the selected output skin float range.

7. When should I use manual odds?

Use manual odds when you already have exact custom chance weights. The calculator will normalize those weights automatically.

8. Can this calculator guarantee profit?

No. It estimates probability and value. Skin prices change often, and each contract result still depends on chance.