Calculator
Example Data Table
| Type | Collection | Price | Float | Outcome Count | Outcome Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Input Skin | Dust Collection | 2.10 | 0.085000 | Not needed | Not needed |
| Input Skin | Mirage Collection | 1.85 | 0.110000 | Not needed | Not needed |
| Outcome Skin | Dust Collection | Not needed | 0.00 to 0.50 | 3 | 38.00 |
| Outcome Skin | Mirage Collection | Not needed | 0.00 to 0.70 | 4 | 24.50 |
Formula Used
Total Cost = Sum of all 10 input skin prices.
Average Float = Sum of input floats ÷ 10.
Outcome Float = Average Float × (Outcome Max Float − Outcome Min Float) + Outcome Min Float.
Outcome Chance = (Collection Tickets ÷ 10) × (1 ÷ Collection Output Count).
Net Return = Market Price × (1 − Sale Fee ÷ 100).
Expected Net Return = Sum of each outcome chance × each net return.
Expected Profit = Expected Net Return − Total Cost.
ROI = Expected Profit ÷ Total Cost × 100.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter all 10 input skins with price, collection, and float.
- Use matching collection names for input and outcome rows.
- Add each possible upgraded item and its market value.
- Enter each outcome float range from the item data.
- Set your selling fee and target profit.
- Press calculate to see odds, expected value, and risk.
- Use CSV or PDF buttons to save the report.
CS GO Trade Up Calculator Guide
What This Tool Does
A trade up contract can look simple. It is not always simple. Ten skins go into one contract. One higher rarity skin comes out. The result depends on collections, possible outputs, item floats, and current prices. This calculator brings those parts into one clear report.
Why Expected Value Matters
Expected value is the average return over many similar trades. A single contract can still win or lose. A good expected value means the price and odds are stronger. A bad expected value means the contract is likely overpriced. This tool checks that before you commit items.
How Probability Is Estimated
Each input skin gives a ticket to its collection. If six inputs are from one collection, that collection gets six tickets. The calculator divides those tickets by ten. Then it divides the collection chance across its possible upgraded outputs. This gives a practical outcome chance for each listed skin.
Float Planning
Float can change a trade from poor to strong. The calculator averages the input floats. It then maps that average into the allowed range of each outcome. This helps you see if an output may become Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, or Battle-Scarred.
Profit and Risk Review
The calculator subtracts your selling fee from each market price. It compares that net return against your total contract cost. It also shows ROI and success chance. Success chance uses your target profit setting. This helps you separate small wins from useful wins.
Using Better Data
Use recent market prices when possible. Prices can move fast. Check buy orders, sale history, and liquidity. A rare item may look profitable but may sell slowly. Add realistic fees. Add realistic input costs. Keep your floats accurate. Small float errors can change the final condition and value.
Best Use Case
This calculator is best for planning. It does not promise profit. It gives a structured estimate. Use it to compare several contracts. Save reports when testing different collections. The strongest trade up plan usually has controlled input cost, low average float, good output demand, and clear downside risk.
FAQs
What is a CS GO trade up contract?
It is a contract that uses 10 skins of one rarity. It returns one skin from the next higher rarity. The result depends on the collections used and possible outputs.
Does this calculator guarantee profit?
No. It estimates odds, float, and expected value. A single trade can still lose money. Use it for planning and risk review only.
Why do collection names matter?
Collection names decide the ticket weight for possible outcomes. If you enter mismatched names, the calculator cannot assign the right probability to that collection.
What is collection output count?
It is the number of possible next-rarity outcomes from that collection. The calculator divides the collection chance by this count to estimate each item chance.
How is output float calculated?
The tool averages all input floats. Then it maps that average into the minimum and maximum float range of the outcome item.
What sale fee should I enter?
Enter the fee charged by the market where you plan to sell. Many users test with 15 percent, but your real fee may differ.
What is success chance?
Success chance is the combined probability of outcomes that meet or beat your target profit after fees and contract cost.
Why is probability coverage below 100 percent?
It means you did not list every possible outcome. Add all possible outputs from the used collections for a fuller expected value estimate.