Calculator Form
Example Data Table
| Type | Collection | Count | Average Float | Average Price | Modeled Output Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Input group | Alpha Collection | 5 | 0.0766 | $1.26 | $12.50 |
| Input group | Bravo Collection | 5 | 0.0902 | $1.18 | $8.70 |
| Output group | Alpha Collection | 5 of 5 | Calculated | Not needed | $12.50 |
| Output group | Bravo Collection | 4 of 4 | Calculated | Not needed | $8.70 |
Formula Used
Total input cost = sum of all ten input prices.
Average input float = sum of input floats ÷ valid input count.
Collection chance = input count from that collection ÷ valid input count.
Outcome chance = collection chance × represented outcomes ÷ total outcomes.
Output float = output minimum + average input float × (output maximum − output minimum).
Net sale value = market sale price × (1 − marketplace fee).
Net expected value = sum of outcome chance × net sale value.
Expected profit = adjusted expected value − total input cost.
Expected ROI = expected profit ÷ total input cost × 100.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the price, float, and collection for all ten input skins.
- Set the marketplace fee charged after an item sale.
- Add a target profit margin for success chance checks.
- Use the safety buffer when prices may move against you.
- Add output rows for each target or outcome group.
- Match output collection names with input collection names.
- Enter represented outcomes and total possible outcomes.
- Press the calculate button and review the result table.
- Download the CSV or PDF report for record keeping.
Why Use This Trade Up Calculator
A trade up contract looks simple. Ten skins go in. One higher rarity skin comes out. The real decision is not simple. Cost, float, collection count, outcome count, and market fee all change the result. This calculator brings those factors into one view. It helps you estimate expected value before you commit items.
Understanding Collection Odds
Each input skin belongs to a collection. More inputs from one collection give that collection more weight. If six items come from one collection, that collection carries sixty percent of the contract weight. That weight is then divided across possible higher rarity outcomes. A collection with fewer output skins can give stronger odds for each target.
Float Matters
The average input float controls the output float. The output item range also matters. A low average float can still produce a worse wear grade when the target has a narrow or shifted float range. The tool estimates output float for every modeled outcome. It also names the likely wear grade.
Profit and Risk
Expected value is the weighted average of all modeled outcomes. Marketplace fee is removed from each sale value. The calculator then compares net expected value with total input cost. It also shows return on investment, break even sale value, success chance, and a suggested maximum input price.
Advanced Planning
Use several output rows when your input collections differ. Enter one row for each collection you use. Put the number of possible outputs in that collection. Use average sale price when you are modeling a group. Use exact sale price when you are targeting one item. This keeps the model flexible.
Good Habits
Check prices before buying skins. Market listings can move quickly. Always include selling fees. Avoid using old prices from screenshots. Test several float plans. Try cheaper inputs. Compare a safe contract with a high reward contract. Expected value does not guarantee profit. It only describes the long term average. A single contract can still lose money.
Limits of the Result
The model depends on your entries. It cannot predict prices. It does not replace live market research. Use it as a planning guide. Keep records of each contract. Review losing trades and winning trades.
FAQs
What is a trade up contract?
It is a CSGO feature where ten eligible skins are exchanged for one skin of the next higher rarity.
Why do collection names matter?
Collection names decide output weighting. More inputs from one collection give that collection a larger chance in the final result.
How is output float estimated?
The calculator uses average input float and scales it within the target item minimum and maximum float range.
What does expected value mean?
Expected value is the weighted average return across modeled outcomes. It is not a guaranteed result for one contract.
Why include marketplace fee?
Fees reduce sale proceeds. Including them gives a more realistic profit, loss, and break even estimate.
What is modeled probability coverage?
It shows how much of the possible outcome space your output rows represent. Low coverage means some outcomes are missing.
Can I model one target item?
Yes. Set items represented to one. Set total possible outputs to the collection output count for that rarity.
Does this guarantee profit?
No. It gives a planning estimate. Skin prices, fees, float rules, and luck can still change the final result.