Enter Campaign Inputs
Example Data Table
Use these values to test the calculator and verify your export workflow.
| Scenario | Baseline Units | Actual Units | Control Units | Control Audience | Test Audience | Price | Campaign Spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Email Promotion | 1000 | 1320 | 240 | 2000 | 10000 | 48.00 | 4200 |
| Paid Social Push | 850 | 1095 | 170 | 1500 | 7500 | 52.00 | 3800 |
| Retail Coupon Run | 2100 | 2480 | 430 | 3500 | 17500 | 31.50 | 5200 |
Formula Used
Scaled control baseline = (Control Units ÷ Control Audience) × Test Audience
Expected baseline units = (Control Baseline × Confidence Factor) + (Manual Baseline × Remaining Weight)
Raw incremental units = Actual Units − Expected Baseline Units
Attributed incremental units = Raw Incremental Units × Attribution Rate
Effective unit price = Average Price × (1 − Discount Rate)
Net incremental sales = Attributed Incremental Units × Effective Unit Price × (1 − Returns Rate)
Incremental contribution = Attributed Incremental Units × ((Effective Unit Price − Variable Cost) × (1 − Returns Rate))
Net profit impact = Incremental Contribution − Total Campaign Spend
ROI percentage = (Net Profit Impact ÷ Total Campaign Spend) × 100
Lift percentage = ((Actual Units − Expected Baseline Units) ÷ Expected Baseline Units) × 100
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter a manual baseline using past sales, forecasted demand, or a stable pre-campaign average.
- Add control group sales and audience values if you have holdout data.
- Enter test audience size, actual units sold, price, and variable cost.
- Adjust discount, returns, attribution, and confidence percentages to match your measurement method.
- Include campaign spend and any extra allocated costs.
- Submit the form to display incremental sales results above the calculator.
- Export the results as CSV or PDF for reporting, sharing, or archiving.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What does incremental sales mean?
Incremental sales are the extra sales generated beyond the expected baseline. They help separate campaign impact from normal demand, seasonality, or channel trends.
2. Why use a control group?
A control group shows what likely happened without the campaign. That improves baseline quality and reduces over-crediting sales driven by unrelated factors.
3. Can this calculator show negative lift?
Yes. If actual units fall below the expected baseline, the calculator will produce negative incremental units and negative lift, which can reveal campaign inefficiency.
4. What is the attribution rate used for?
Attribution rate reduces raw lift to the portion reasonably credited to the campaign. It is useful when multiple channels influence the same conversion path.
5. Should I include discounts and returns?
Yes. Gross lift can look strong while real revenue stays weak. Discounts and returns help convert volume gains into more realistic net sales estimates.
6. What does the confidence factor control?
It weights the control-derived baseline against your manual baseline. Higher values trust the control group more heavily when both methods are available.
7. Is ROI based on revenue or profit?
This page calculates ROI from incremental contribution minus campaign spend. That makes it closer to profit impact than a simple revenue-only return measure.