Calculator Inputs
Example Data Table
| Scenario | Monthly Visitors | Months | Base CVR | CVR Lift | Base AOV | AOV Lift | Margin | Refunds | Repeat Rate | Variable Cost | Campaign Cost | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter test | 20,000 | 2 | 1.80% | 8.00% | $60.00 | 3.00% | 35.00% | 2.00% | 10.00% | $4.00 | $2,500.00 | 70.00% |
| Growth campaign | 50,000 | 3 | 2.40% | 12.00% | $85.00 | 5.00% | 42.00% | 4.00% | 18.00% | $6.50 | $7,000.00 | 80.00% |
| High-scale push | 120,000 | 6 | 3.10% | 15.00% | $110.00 | 6.50% | 48.00% | 5.00% | 22.00% | $8.00 | $18,000.00 | 85.00% |
Use these sample values to test the calculator and compare different campaign assumptions before building a final profit forecast.
Formula Used
1) Adjusted uplift
Adjusted Conversion Lift = Expected Conversion Lift × Confidence Factor
Adjusted AOV Lift = Expected AOV Lift × Confidence Factor
2) Scenario performance
Scenario Conversion Rate = Baseline Conversion Rate × (1 + Adjusted Conversion Lift)
Scenario AOV = Baseline AOV × (1 + Adjusted AOV Lift)
3) Revenue model
Orders = Total Visitors × Conversion Rate
Refund Factor = 1 − Refund Rate
Net Revenue = Orders × AOV × Refund Factor × (1 + Repeat Purchase Rate)
4) Profit model
Gross Profit = Net Revenue × Gross Margin
Contribution Profit = Gross Profit − (Orders × Repeat Factor × Variable Cost per Order)
Net Profit Lift = Scenario Contribution Profit − Baseline Contribution Profit − Campaign Cost
5) Break-even and payback
ROI = Net Profit Lift ÷ Campaign Cost
Payback Months = Campaign Cost ÷ Monthly Net Profit Lift
Break-even Conversion Rate estimates the conversion rate needed to recover campaign cost within the selected period.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter expected traffic and choose the number of months to evaluate.
- Add your current conversion rate and current average order value.
- Estimate how much conversion rate and order value may improve.
- Enter gross margin, refund rate, repeat purchase rate, and variable cost per order.
- Add total campaign cost and a confidence factor to reduce aggressive assumptions.
- Submit the form to see baseline profit, scenario profit, net lift, break-even rate, ROI, payback, and a comparison chart.
FAQs
1) What does profit lift mean?
Profit lift is the extra net profit created by the improved scenario after subtracting campaign cost. It shows whether your initiative grows profit, not just revenue.
2) Why is there a confidence factor?
Confidence factor makes estimates more conservative. It reduces assumed uplifts so you can model likely outcomes instead of relying on perfect-case forecasts.
3) Should repeat purchases be included?
Yes, when the campaign influences retention or follow-up buying. If your campaign affects only first purchases, set repeat purchase rate to zero.
4) What belongs inside campaign cost?
Include media spend, agency fees, copywriting, design, testing tools, landing page work, and other direct expenses required to run the initiative.
5) What is variable cost per order?
It is the extra cost triggered by each order, such as fulfillment, coupons, support, packaging, payment fees, or handling costs.
6) Can this calculator show negative lift?
Yes. Negative lift appears when incremental contribution profit does not cover campaign cost, or when uplift assumptions are too small.
7) How is break-even conversion rate estimated?
The calculator estimates how much conversion must improve so added contribution profit covers campaign cost during the selected analysis period.
8) Which time period works best?
Choose a period long enough to capture the campaign effect. Use short windows for tests and longer windows for retention or brand initiatives.