Enter Launch And Displacement Data
Formula Used
Adjusted baseline = Old baseline units × [1 + (market growth + seasonality + external shift) ÷ 100]
Raw lost units = max(0, adjusted baseline − actual old units)
Attributed lost units = raw lost units × attribution percent
Cannibalization rate = attributed lost units ÷ new product units × 100
Net revenue shift = new product revenue − displaced old product revenue
Net margin shift = new margin gain − old margin lost
How To Use This Calculator
- Enter the old product baseline before the new launch.
- Enter the actual old product units after launch.
- Enter new product units for the same period.
- Add prices and margin rates for both products.
- Adjust for market growth, seasonality, and external shocks.
- Set the attribution percentage for the new product effect.
- Add uncertainty if your measurements are not exact.
- Submit the form and export the report if needed.
Example Data Table
| Case |
Old Baseline |
Actual Old Units |
New Units |
Adjustments |
Attribution |
Approx Rate |
| Soft Launch |
1,000 |
880 |
500 |
2% |
75% |
21% |
| Strong Replacement |
1,200 |
750 |
620 |
0% |
90% |
65% |
| Growing Market |
900 |
860 |
430 |
8% |
60% |
16% |
Cannibalization Rate in Applied Physics Models
Cannibalization rate is usually a business measure. It can still be handled with a physics style method. The idea is displacement. One new channel gains demand. An older channel loses demand. The calculator treats both flows like measured quantities.
Why Adjust the Baseline
A raw loss can be misleading. Old demand may fall because of season changes. It may also shift because the market grows or contracts. A physics style baseline removes these outside forces first. This gives a cleaner comparison. The adjusted baseline is the expected old demand without the new launch.
Core Measurement Logic
The model compares adjusted old demand with observed old demand. The difference is the lost demand. Then the attribution setting decides how much of that loss belongs to the new product. This is useful when several causes act together. The attributed loss is divided by new demand. The result is the cannibalization rate.
Revenue and Margin View
Unit rate is only one view. A new product can reduce old sales but still improve revenue. That happens when new price or margin is stronger. It can also damage profit when the new product has a lower margin. This tool estimates revenue shift and margin shift. These values help explain the practical effect.
Using Uncertainty
Every measured input has noise. Store logs, campaign data, and test periods are rarely perfect. The uncertainty field creates a simple low and high range. It does not replace a full statistical study. It gives a fast sensitivity check. This is helpful when early launch data is incomplete.
Interpreting Results
A low rate means most new demand is incremental. A middle rate suggests partial replacement. A high rate means the launch mostly moved demand from the old product. In physics language, the system has strong internal displacement. Use the result with context. Check stock levels, promotions, and timing. Review several periods before making decisions.
Practical Checks
Use consistent periods. Compare weeks with weeks, or months with months. Avoid mixing launch spikes with mature demand. Record any price changes. Mark shortages and stockouts. Add notes about advertising. These checks reduce false signals. They also make the exported report easier to audit later by your analytics team.
FAQs
What is cannibalization rate?
It is the share of new product demand that appears to come from lost demand in an older product. A higher rate means more replacement and less truly new demand.
Why is this calculator listed with Physics?
It uses a physics style displacement idea. One measured stream rises while another falls. Adjustments help isolate the movement caused by the new launch.
What is an adjusted baseline?
It is the old product demand expected without the new product. Market growth, seasonality, and external shifts are applied before measuring lost units.
Can the rate exceed 100 percent?
Yes. This can happen when attributed old product loss is larger than new product units. It signals a severe decline or possible data issue.
What does attribution mean?
Attribution is the percentage of old product decline assigned to the new product. Use a lower value when promotions, stockouts, or competitors also affected demand.
Why include margin impact?
Unit loss alone can mislead. A launch may replace old sales but still improve profit if the new item has better price or margin.
How should uncertainty be used?
Use it when inputs are estimates. It creates a low and high rate range, which helps review sensitivity before making a decision.
Does this replace deeper analysis?
No. It is a planning and screening tool. Use controlled tests, longer time periods, and clean sales data for final decisions.