Track shot value using distance, angle, pressure, and assists. Review totals, averages, and quality bands. Turn raw attempts into sharper match evaluation decisions today.
Use one stacked page, then enter shot rows for both teams. The calculator grid becomes three columns on large screens, two on smaller screens, and one on mobile.
These rows match the calculator format and can be pasted into either shot box.
| Distance | Angle | Body Part | Assist Type | Situation | Big Chance | Pressure | Goalkeeper | Example CSV Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 28 | foot | throughball | openplay | yes | low | off_line | 11,28,foot,throughball,openplay,yes,low,off_line |
| 18 | 38 | head | cross | openplay | no | medium | normal | 18,38,head,cross,openplay,no,medium,normal |
| 11 | 90 | foot | none | penalty | yes | low | normal | 11,90,foot,none,penalty,yes,low,normal |
This calculator uses a simplified logistic expected goals model. Each shot receives a scoring probability after combining distance, angle, body part, assist type, match situation, big chance status, defensive pressure, and goalkeeper position.
Base equation:
z = -1.95 - 0.08 × distance + 2.35 × (angle / 120) + body + assist + situation + big_chance + pressure + goalkeeper
xG = 1 / (1 + e^-z)
Adjusted xG = xG × competition_factor × venue_factor
The medium and high quality bands are controlled by the thresholds you choose. Actual goals are compared against total xG to show finishing overperformance or underperformance.
Expected goals estimates how likely a shot is to become a goal. It judges chance quality, not just shot count, so better locations and cleaner situations usually produce higher values.
Yes. It helps compare both teams, find which side created better chances, and measure whether the final score matched underlying attacking quality.
Shots closer to goal and from wider central angles are typically easier to score. Those two factors strongly shape chance quality in most expected goals models.
These settings refine shot context. Tight pressure can reduce finishing quality, while an advanced goalkeeper can either narrow space or expose the goal depending on positioning.
Usually yes. Penalties have strong conversion rates, so the model assigns them a large positive adjustment, making them one of the highest value shot types.
Finishing delta is actual goals minus total xG. A positive number means a team scored above expectation, while a negative number means it finished below expectation.
Yes. The medium and high thresholds are editable. That lets you define chance bands for your own reporting style, competition standard, or scouting process.
No. Professional providers use larger event datasets and proprietary tuning. This page offers a practical, transparent model for analysis, education, and quick comparison.
Important Note: All the Calculators listed in this site are for educational purpose only and we do not guarentee the accuracy of results. Please do consult with other sources as well.