Explained Sum of Squares Calculator

Analyze regression fit with detailed explained variation quickly. Enter observed and fitted values together safely. Export results for reports, homework, audits, and model review.

Calculator Inputs

Use commas, spaces, semicolons, or new lines.
Each fitted value must match one observed value.
Leave blank for equal weights.

Formula Used

The calculator uses observed values, fitted values, and optional weights.

Weighted mean: ȳ = Σ(wᵢyᵢ) / Σwᵢ

Explained Sum of Squares: ESS = Σwᵢ(ŷᵢ − ȳ)²

Residual Sum of Squares: RSS = Σwᵢ(yᵢ − ŷᵢ)²

Total Sum of Squares: TSS = Σwᵢ(yᵢ − ȳ)²

Explained Ratio: ESS / TSS

Residual Based R Squared: R² = 1 − RSS / TSS

Mean Square Regression: MSR = ESS / k

Mean Square Error: MSE = RSS / (n − k − 1)

F Statistic: F = MSR / MSE

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter observed response values in the first box.
  2. Enter fitted or predicted values in the second box.
  3. Enter weights only when observations have unequal importance.
  4. Enter the number of predictors used by the regression model.
  5. Select the required decimal precision.
  6. Click Calculate to view the result above the form.
  7. Use CSV or PDF buttons to download the report.

Example Data Table

Row Observed Value Fitted Value Weight
1 10 9.8 1
2 12 12.4 1
3 15 14.7 1
4 18 17.5 1
5 20 20.6 1

Explained Sum of Squares Calculator Guide

Explained sum of squares shows how much variation a regression model explains. It compares fitted values with the average observed value. A larger value means the model captures more movement in the response data. It is commonly used in regression ANOVA tables.

Why This Measure Matters

Regression separates total variation into parts. One part is explained by the model. Another part remains unexplained as residual error. The explained sum of squares helps you see whether fitted values move away from the mean in a useful way. When it is high compared with total variation, the model has stronger explanatory power.

This calculator is designed for manual analysis, coursework, audit checks, and model review. You can paste observed values and fitted values. You can also enter optional weights. Weighted analysis is useful when observations have different importance, frequency, or reliability. The tool then calculates the weighted mean, explained variation, residual variation, total variation, fit ratios, and common regression statistics.

Interpreting the Output

The explained ratio equals explained sum of squares divided by total sum of squares. It shows the share of total variation represented by fitted values. The residual based R squared uses one minus residual sum of squares divided by total sum of squares. In ordinary least squares models with an intercept, both ratios are usually close. A large gap can signal rounded predictions, missing intercept behavior, weights, or nonstandard fitted values.

The calculator also reports mean square regression, mean square error, F statistic, adjusted R squared, and the balance gap. These values help compare model strength while considering sample size and predictor count. The F statistic is only shown when degrees of freedom are valid.

Good Data Practice

Use aligned rows. The first observed value must match the first fitted value. The same rule applies to weights. Remove labels, currency marks, and extra notes before pasting data. Decimals and negative values are allowed. Weights should be positive.

This result is a statistical summary, not proof of causation. A high explained sum of squares can still come from overfitting, clustered data, or leakage. Always review residual patterns, assumptions, and subject knowledge before using results for decisions. Pair these numbers with plots, diagnostics, and clear reporting notes for better interpretation overall.

FAQs

What is explained sum of squares?

Explained sum of squares measures how much variation is captured by fitted regression values compared with the observed mean. It is often used in regression ANOVA tables.

Is explained sum of squares the same as regression sum of squares?

Yes. In many regression texts, explained sum of squares and regression sum of squares describe the same model-explained variation.

What values do I need?

You need observed response values and matching fitted values. Optional weights may be entered when observations have unequal importance or frequency.

Why can ESS and R squared differ?

ESS divided by TSS can differ from residual based R squared when predictions are rounded, weighted, nonstandard, or not produced by an intercept model.

Can I use negative observed values?

Yes. Negative observed and fitted values are valid. The calculator squares deviations, so variation remains nonnegative.

What is the balance gap?

The balance gap is TSS minus ESS minus RSS. For ordinary least squares with an intercept, this value is usually near zero.

What does the F statistic show?

The F statistic compares explained variation per predictor with residual variation per residual degree of freedom. It helps assess overall model strength.

Can I download the results?

Yes. Use the CSV button for spreadsheet work. Use the PDF button for a simple printable report.

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