Formula Used
Cost per attempt = base item cost + material cost + service fee.
Material cost = quantity multiplied by unit price for each item.
Expected successes = attempts × success probability.
Expected failures = attempts × failure probability.
Probability of at least one success = 1 - failure probability raised to attempts.
Target probability uses the binomial model.
It adds the chance of reaching at least the selected number of successes.
Expected profit = expected revenue - total attempt cost.
Break even sale price =
risk adjusted attempt cost ÷ success probability ÷ value kept after tax.
The 95% range uses expected successes plus or minus 1.96 standard deviations.
How To Use This Calculator
Enter the item name and choose the calculation mode.
Add your number of attempts and the success rate.
Use your actual server rate when possible.
Add the base item cost, material prices, fees, and sale price.
Enter market tax if your server marketplace deducts a fee.
Add fail recovery if failed attempts return crystals, scrap, or partial value.
Press Calculate.
The result appears above the form.
Use CSV for spreadsheet records.
Use PDF when you want a simple saved report.
Example Data Table
| Plan |
Success Rate |
Attempts |
Cost Per Try |
Sale Price |
Planning Note |
| Weapon craft |
35% |
50 |
348,500 Adena |
500,000 Adena |
Check expected value before buying recipes. |
| Enchant push |
60% |
20 |
1,200,000 Adena |
2,800,000 Adena |
Use fail recovery when crystals remain. |
| Rare drop farm |
2.5% |
300 |
15,000 Adena |
4,000,000 Adena |
High variance needs a larger sample. |
Lineage2 Item Planning With Probability
Lineage2 item work often feels random. A clear calculator makes that randomness easier to manage.
This tool treats every craft, drop, enchant, or compound as a repeatable statistical attempt.
You enter the success rate, attempt count, item cost, material cost, fees, sale value, and market tax.
The calculator then estimates expected successes, total cost, risk, break even price, and profit.
Why Item Odds Matter
A small rate change can move the whole plan. A ten percent chance may look simple, yet ten attempts do not promise one success.
The probability of at least one success is different from expected success count. This is why the calculator shows both values.
It also gives the chance of reaching a target number of successes. That helps when you need several items for gear, trading, or inventory goals.
Cost Control For Players
Item planning is not only about chance. Each try has a base cost. It may include the base item, crystals, stones, recipes, materials, and service fees.
Failed attempts may return some value. The salvage field handles that refund. Market tax reduces final sale value.
The tool combines these parts so expected profit is not overstated.
Using The Results
Expected profit is a long run average. It is not a guarantee for a short session. The standard deviation shows how far results may swing.
A wider range means higher uncertainty. The confidence target tells how many attempts may be needed for a chosen chance of success.
This is useful before buying large stacks of materials.
Best Practices
Use realistic rates from your server. Private servers, chronicles, events, and item tiers can change odds. Add a buffer for price movement.
Check the break even sale value before starting. Compare several plans using the export buttons.
A profitable expected value can still require a large budget. A safe plan balances cost, chance, and market demand.
Advanced Planning Notes
Run separate checks for each item grade. Do not mix rates unless they share the same success table.
Save a copy before events end. Event prices can distort profit. When results are close to zero,
small tax or material changes can decide the whole plan. Recalculate after every major market update today.
FAQs
What does this Lineage2 item calculator estimate?
It estimates success chance, expected item count, total cost, expected revenue, profit, risk range, break even price, and attempts needed for a confidence target.
Can I use it for crafting?
Yes. Enter the craft chance, recipe cost, material costs, service fee, sale price, and tax. The calculator will estimate the expected outcome.
Can I use it for enchant attempts?
Yes. Treat each enchant as one attempt. Add scroll cost, item cost, fail recovery value, and the success rate for that enchant level.
What is expected profit?
Expected profit is the long run average gain or loss. It does not guarantee a single session result because chance can vary heavily.
What is break even sale price?
Break even sale price is the sale value needed to cover risk adjusted attempt cost after success chance, failure recovery, and market tax.
Why does probability differ from expected successes?
Expected successes is an average count. Probability answers a different question, such as the chance of getting at least one successful item.
Should I trust default rates?
No. Use rates from your own server, chronicle, event, or item table. Small rate changes can change profit and risk quickly.
What should I do with the export files?
Use CSV for spreadsheets and comparison logs. Use PDF for a quick report that records your current assumptions and result summary.