Enter Backlog Inputs
Results Explanation
- Gross burn tracks completed work only.
- Net burn shows true backlog reduction after incoming and reopened work.
- Scope pressure ratio compares incoming scope against throughput.
- Adjusted backlog adds a risk buffer for planning realism.
- Forecast factor lets you model stronger or weaker future delivery.
- Per-person burn helps compare output across team sizes.
- Forecast date appears only when backlog is burning down.
- Negative net burn means backlog is expanding, not shrinking.
Example Data Table
| Sprint | Start Backlog | Added | Reopened | Completed | Removed | End Backlog | Net Burn/Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sprint 1 | 420 | 38 | 9 | 95 | 14 | 358 | 6.20 |
| Sprint 2 | 358 | 26 | 6 | 88 | 10 | 292 | 6.60 |
| Sprint 3 | 292 | 24 | 5 | 82 | 12 | 227 | 6.50 |
| Sprint 4 | 227 | 18 | 4 | 76 | 8 | 165 | 6.20 |
This sample shows how backlog can still fall steadily even when new scope and reopened work continue entering the pipeline.
Formula Used
Ending Backlog = Starting Backlog + Scope Added + Reopened Work - Completed Work - Removed Work
Gross Burn Per Day = Completed Work ÷ Period Days
Net Burn Per Day = (Completed Work + Removed Work - Scope Added - Reopened Work) ÷ Period Days
Gross Burn Per Sprint = Gross Burn Per Day × Sprint Length
Net Burn Per Sprint = Net Burn Per Day × Sprint Length
Adjusted Backlog = Ending Backlog × (1 + Risk Buffer)
Forecast Days = (Adjusted Backlog - Target Backlog) ÷ Scenario Net Burn Per Day
The scenario net burn uses your forecast factor, so future delivery can be modeled as faster or slower than the currently measured period.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the backlog size at the start of the measured period.
- Add the amount of work completed during that period.
- Record new scope added, descoped work, and reopened work.
- Set the measured period length and normal sprint length.
- Enter a target backlog for release readiness or stability.
- Use forecast factor to simulate better or worse execution.
- Add a risk buffer when uncertainty or hidden work is likely.
- Press calculate to view burn metrics, timing, and the projection chart.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What does backlog burn rate mean?
Backlog burn rate measures how quickly work leaves the backlog during a chosen period. This version separates gross burn from net burn, so you can see whether incoming scope is masking delivery progress.
2. Why track both gross and net burn?
Gross burn shows delivery throughput. Net burn shows actual backlog reduction after added, removed, and reopened items are considered. Teams often look healthy on gross burn while still growing the total backlog.
3. What is a good scope pressure ratio?
A ratio below 1.00 usually means throughput is outpacing incoming work. A ratio above 1.00 means added and reopened scope are arriving faster than the team is burning backlog down.
4. When should I use a risk buffer?
Use a risk buffer when hidden dependencies, late testing issues, unplanned support work, or unstable requirements could increase effective backlog. It creates a more conservative and realistic forecast.
5. Can I use story points instead of tickets?
Yes. The calculator works with story points, tickets, hours, or another consistent unit. Keep the same unit across starting backlog, completed work, added scope, removed work, and reopened work.
6. Why does the tool sometimes show no forecast date?
A forecast date appears only when the scenario net burn is positive. If net burn is zero or negative, the backlog is flat or growing, so there is no reliable burn-down completion date.
7. How often should teams review backlog burn?
Review it every sprint at minimum. Weekly checks help faster-moving teams catch scope creep earlier, compare delivery against plan, and adjust release expectations before risk becomes expensive.
8. Does removed work count as burn?
It reduces backlog size, so it affects net burn. Still, removed work is not the same as delivered value. Teams should monitor both delivery output and descoping activity to avoid misleading conclusions.