Estimate value using revenue, retention, and gross margin. Compare against acquisition spend for stronger planning. See ratio strength, payback speed, and profitability clearly today.
| Scenario | Average Order Value | Orders/Month | Margin | Refund Rate | Retention | CAC | Estimated Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline fashion store | $120 | 1.8 | 55% | 4% | 78% | $85 | 2.76 : 1 |
| Improved retention case | $120 | 1.8 | 55% | 4% | 84% | $85 | 3.63 : 1 |
| Higher CAC campaign | $120 | 1.8 | 55% | 4% | 78% | $120 | 1.95 : 1 |
Gross Monthly Revenue = Average Order Value × Orders per Month
Net Monthly Revenue = Gross Monthly Revenue × (1 − Refund Rate)
Monthly Gross Profit = (Net Monthly Revenue × Gross Margin) − Monthly Service Cost
Discounted LTV = Σ [Monthly Gross Profit × Survival Rate ÷ (1 + Monthly Discount Rate)^t]
LTV to CAC Ratio = Discounted LTV ÷ CAC
This approach is useful because it adjusts value for margin, refunds, retention decay, support cost, and time value of money.
Many operators use 3:1 as a practical benchmark. Below that, acquisition may be too expensive or retention too weak. A very high ratio can also suggest underinvestment in growth.
Revenue can overstate customer value. Gross margin focuses on the portion of sales left after direct product cost, which makes the ratio more realistic for decision making.
Small retention improvements compound over time. When more customers remain active each month, their future contribution grows, which pushes LTV upward much faster than one-time order increases.
Yes. Refunds reduce realized revenue and can materially change the ratio, especially in categories with high return behavior such as apparel, beauty, and seasonal promotions.
Discounted LTV lowers the value of future cash flows. It reflects the idea that profit earned later is less valuable than profit earned sooner.
Payback estimates how long it takes customer contribution to recover acquisition cost. Faster payback usually improves cash flow and reduces growth risk.
Yes. The model works for both. Subscription businesses may have steadier retention, while repeat-purchase stores may use lower order frequency and more variable lifespan assumptions.
Overstated margins, ignored refunds, low service cost assumptions, or optimistic retention can all inflate LTV. Review each input carefully before using the output for budgeting.
Important Note: All the Calculators listed in this site are for educational purpose only and we do not guarentee the accuracy of results. Please do consult with other sources as well.