Example dataset
Use this sample to understand inputs and outputs for three customers.
| Customer | AOV | Purchases/Month | Margin | Lifespan (Months) | CAC | Estimated Value (Order Model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer A | USD 55.00 | 3.20 | 55% | 18 | USD 35.00 | USD 1,707.40 |
| Customer B | USD 120.00 | 1.10 | 65% | 30 | USD 90.00 | USD 2,484.00 |
| Customer C | USD 35.00 | 4.00 | 45% | 12 | USD 20.00 | USD 736.00 |
Formulas used
Gross value = (AOV × Purchases/Period × Margin) × LifespanPeriods
Net value = Gross value − CAC (optional)
Gross value = (ARPU × Margin) ÷ Churn
Net value = Gross value − CAC (optional)
PV = Σ[ t=1..H ] (Revenue × Margin × Retention^(t−1) × (1+Growth)^(t−1)) ÷ (1+Discount)^t
Net value = PV − CAC (optional)
How to use this calculator
- Choose the period you track: month, quarter, or year.
- Select a model that matches your available metrics.
- Enter margin and CAC to estimate profit-based value.
- Click Calculate to view results above the form.
- Export CSV or PDF to share with stakeholders.
Tip: keep all “per period” inputs aligned to the same timeframe.
FAQs
1) Which model should I use?
Use order-based for ecommerce with clear order patterns. Use churn-based for subscription ARPU and churn. Use DCF when you need discounting, retention decay, and optional growth.
2) What does “period” mean here?
A period is your reporting unit, like a month or quarter. Keep AOV, frequency, ARPU, churn, retention, and discount rates consistent with the same period for accurate outputs.
3) Should I include CAC?
Include CAC when you want net value for budgeting and allowable CPA targets. Exclude CAC when comparing customer value across segments before acquisition efficiency is considered.
4) How do I estimate gross margin?
Start with revenue minus variable costs like product cost, payment fees, and fulfillment. Avoid including fixed overhead if you want a cleaner unit-economics view for marketing decisions.
5) Why do churn and retention both exist?
Churn is the share that leaves each period, while retention is the share that stays. For many subscriptions, retention ≈ 100% − churn, but cohorts can behave differently across segments.
6) What does the payback number represent?
Payback estimates how many periods it takes for profit per period to recover CAC. It is a rough indicator and ignores seasonality, cohort effects, and changes in margin or frequency over time.
7) Can I use this for non-subscription businesses?
Yes. Use order-based for repeat-purchase businesses and DCF when you want a more flexible projection. If you only know ARPU and churn-like attrition, churn-based can still be useful.